From 1990 onwards, every election in Rajasthan has seen the Congress and the BJP trade the benches in state Assembly. So, one can ill-afford to ignore the anti-incumbency factor in the state. And least so can Ashok Gehlot, whose second coming as the Chief Minister of the state was interspersed by a term in the office for BJP’s Vasundhara Raje Scindia. This phenomenon calls for another statistician’s favourite - the Law of Averages – but the way Rajasthan chooses to vote shall decide who dons the CM’s turban.
Other than anti-incumbency, other major factors that could decide the outcome of the state elections are —
Inflation: The failure of government to check prices of food, petrol and other essential items in the past few years is a strong factor of discontent among the people. The state could have done more to check prices of essentials like onion and food items going through the roof. Rising inflation has left little cheer in the voter’s pockets.
Law and Order: The crime graph has risen sharply in the recent years and a spike has been seen in cases of murder, rape and other cases of crime against women. The infamous Bhanwari Devi murder case involving a cabinet minister and Congress legislator has not yet been forgotten. The overall lack of security will play a major part in deciding who the voters opt for in this election.
Corruption: Mining scam, nepotism by those in the higher ranks in the government and many cases involving government officials have been unearthed in the state. The CM himself was accused of favouring companies involving his son and awarding lucrative mining contacts to his relatives.
Communal flare-ups: A steep rise in cases of communal violence has been registered in the state of late. Violence and police firing in Gopalgarh led to the death of 10, a mosque was razed in Bhilwara and clashes were reported from Udaipur, Tonk and Ajmer.
Mismanagement of public services: BJP’s chief-ministerial candidate Vasundhara Raje claims that the Congress rule has left the state in the clutch of mafias — mining mafia, water mafia and many more mafias. She claims the condition of roads, electricity and water supply has deteriorated in the past five years. Public schemes have often failed in the state due to shortage of manpower. Treatment in government hospitals is free, but the lack of trained doctors hampers this service. However, the Jaipur Metro has been a silver lining for the capital.