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CMIE trims FY13 growth forecast to 6.3%

Last Updated: Thursday, September 13, 2012 - 19:46

Mumbai: The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Thursday revised the country's economic growth estimate for the current fiscal downwards to 6.3 percent on concerns from both the manufacturing and services sectors.

"We expect real GDP to grow by 6.3 percent during 2012-13. This is a downward revision from our previous forecast of 6.7 percent growth," CMIE said in its monthly review of the Indian economy released here.

A change in forecast for manufacturing sector and the consequent fall in the growth of the services sector prompted the revision, the think-tank said.

Government data released last month said India's economy grew 5.5 percent during the first quarter ended June. Industry grew 3.6 percent, agriculture 2.9 percent and services sector by a relatively slower 6.9 percent.

The city-based research outfit joins a growing list of rating agencies and economists who believe GDP growth of Asia's third-largest economy will slip in the current fiscal.

The RBI has revised growth projection down to 6.5 percent while the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council's latest report has pegged it at 6.7 percent as against the budgeted target of 7.3 percent. Lowest among the projections are at 5.1 percent, made by a foreign brokerage house.

The fall in growth is being blamed on weak global conditions, especially debt crisis in eurozone, a sharp fall in rupee and a host of domestic factors.

These include 'policy paralysis' which is affecting decision-making and high interest rates due to rise in inflation.

CMIE has downwardly revised its estimate for growth in manufacturing sector, which grew 2.5 percent in FY12, to 3.2 percent for the fiscal from the previous 3.7 percent.

The slowdown in manufacturing is already starting to have a drag on services. The services sector's 6.9 percent growth in the June quarter was the slowest quarterly growth in three years, CMIE said, adding this growth was dragged down by the mere 4 percent rise in trade, hotels, transport, storage and communication segments.


First Published: Thursday, September 13, 2012 - 19:46
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