CRISIL cuts growth forecast to 5.5% for 2012-13

Last Updated: Tuesday, August 7, 2012 - 16:12

New Delhi: Rating agency CRISIL on Tuesday cut the economic growth forecast for the current fiscal to 5.5 percent, from 6.5 percent estimated in June, in view of deficient rainfall and worsening global situation.

CRISIL also expects the average Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation to be higher at around 8 percent as against of 7 percent estimated earlier.

"The downward revision in India's growth forecast factors in the adverse impact of rainfall deficiency and worsening of the euro zone growth outlook," CRISIL said in its report 'India: Macroeconomic Outlook Revision 2012-13'

As per the Indian Meteorological Department data, the rainfall was expected to be deficient by 15 percent for June- September 2012. The Standard & Poor's has recently lowered the eurozone growth forecast to (-) 0.6 percent from flat growth estimated earlier.

The Reserve Bank in its quarterly monetary policy last month had lowered the growth forecast for current fiscal to 6.5 percent, from 7.3 percent.

CRISIL said the average WPI inflation in the current fiscal would be higher at 8 percent on account of adverse impact of deficient monsoon on food inflation.

It also expects the fiscal deficit to surge to 6.2 percent of GDP in 2012-13 from our earlier estimate of 5.8 percent.

"The increase in the fiscal deficit largely reflects lower revenue growth as a result of slowing GDP growth. In case of a substantial fiscal stimulus to the economy, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio could worsen further," it said.

The Centre's fiscal deficit ballooned to 5.76 percent of GDP in the last fiscal on account of high fuel subsidy outgo. The government has not been able to decontrol diesel prices even after taking in-principle decision.

For the April-June period, the fiscal deficit rose to Rs 1.9 lakh crore, or 37.1 percent of the 2012-13 target. The Centre hopes to bring down the deficit to 5.1 percent of GDP in the current fiscal but the task seems difficult in view of rising oil, food and fertiliser subsidy bills.

CRISIL further said that given the worsening eurozone economy as well as domestic growth slowdown, "we now expect the Indian economy to attract lower foreign capital inflows compared to our earlier estimate".

It further said that swift policy action to solve issues related to mining, land acquisition and speedy clearance of projects can create upside to the growth projection.


First Published: Tuesday, August 7, 2012 - 16:12

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