Crisil launches alternative measure of core inflation
New Delhi: Rating agency Crisil today released the Crisil Core Inflation Indicator (CCII), derived from the existing Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in a bid to capture demand-side pressures on prices.
"The CCII captures demand-side pressures on prices better and is more stable than the existing core inflation measure," a statement said.
The agency said the index can supplement the existing indicators that influence the RBI's interest rate decisions.
"CCII is especially relevant in today's uncertain and volatile economic environment," it added.
Releasing the index, Crisil said, "Our forecast shows that CCII will drop to around 4 per cent in 2012-13 from nearly 7 per cent in 2011-12".
This decline, it said, creates an environment conducive for interest rate cuts, though its timing and quantum will also depend on other factors such as oil prices and the government's actions towards fiscal consolidation.
RBI, which is scheduled to announce the annual credit policy on April 17, has hiked interest rates 13 times since March, 2010 in its bid to tame inflation.
Inflation which remained high during most of 2010 and 2011 has started showing signs of moderation in the recent months.
The government releases Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation on a monthly basis, in addition to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based price figures.
The agency will release the CCII every month using WPI data published by the Ministry of Industry and Commerce.
CCII includes processed food and metal products to take into account the second-round of impact of supply shocks and it excludes base metal prices which are directly influenced by international prices, Crisil said.
A good core inflation measure should exclude the impact of temporary movement in overall inflation, the rating agency said. CCII, excludes this component in its calculation, it added.