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Global economic confidence highest in four quarters: WEF

Last Updated: Thursday, April 12, 2012 - 17:02

New Delhi: Confidence in the state of the global economy over the coming 12 months has climbed to its highest level in the last four quarters, a survey by World Economic Forum has revealed.

According to the World Economic Forum Global Confidence Index, one-thirds of global experts from business, government and civil society say they are confident or very confident in the state of the economy over the coming 12 months, up from 13 percent of respondents in the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, one thirds of the 273 respondents are not confident in the state of the global economy; but the percentage has fallen significantly over last year when it was as high as 61 percent and the remaining third have taken a neutral stance.

"The survey results do not signal a 'cautious optimism' returning, but merely caution as the global economy remains fragile," World Economic Forum Managing Director Lee Howell who is also responsible for the Forum's Global Risks 2012 report said.

Fear of a major economic disruption has also decreased. The number of respondents worried about this dropped from 63 per cent in the previous quarter to 46 per cent.

Business is especially concerned, with 65 per cent saying a geopolitical disruption is likely or very likely, compared with only 39 per cent of respondents from the government.

However, the perceived likelihood of a major geopolitical disruption remains high: as 57 percent of respondents still think it is likely or very likely in the next 12 months, while only 15 per cent are not worried about it.

"The perception that a significant geopolitical shock is possible in the next 12 months is a clear signal in this regard, given the interplay of global economics and geopolitics," Howell said.

The survey covered 273 experts from business, government, international organisations and academia who are members of the Forum's Network of Global Agenda Councils.

The Global Confidence Index, a joint initiative of the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network and Global Agenda Councils.


First Published: Thursday, April 12, 2012 - 17:02
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