India's Q2 GDP likely to have grown by about 4.5%: Experts
New Delhi: After a sluggish first quarter, India's economy may have expanded by about 4.5 percent in the July-September period on the back of rising exports and a good monsoon helping industrial recovery, experts said.
The second-quarter GDP numbers are scheduled to be announced on November 29.
"GDP growth would have improved to 4.6 per cent in Q2 from 4.4 percent in Q1, with a pick-up in the performance of industry at around 2.3 percent from 0.2 percent and agriculture at near 3.5 percent from 2.7 percent, which could have offset the slowdown in the services sector," ICRA Ltd said in a report.
ICRA, an associate of Moody's Investors Service, said the Index of Industrial Production indicates a mild improvement in manufacturing and mining & quarrying in Q2 from the previous quarter.
"While investment activity remained muted and consumption confidence weakened, the performance of merchandise exports improved considerably in Q2 relative to Q1," it said.
As per FICCI's latest Economic Outlook Survey, GDP growth was 4.5 percent in Q2.
Dun & Bradstreet said economic expansion in India is expected at about 4.5 percent during Q2 and it is further likely to remain weak during the remaining fiscal.
Deutsche Bank was more optimistic and said the economy is likely to have grown 5.5 percent in Q2 on the good monsoon, higher industrial growth and an increase in public spending.
"While expectations remain poor, we estimate that real GDP rose by 5.5 percent during the quarter, the best performance in a year," the bank said in a note.
India's economic growth hit a decade low of 5 percent in 2012-13 on account of poor performances in the farm, manufacturing and mining sectors.
The Reserve Bank expects GDP to expand 5 percent in the current financial year, while the government estimates growth at between 5 and 5.5 percent.
Both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have lowered their growth forecasts for India in 2013-14.
The IMF projected an average growth rate of about 3.75 percent at market prices. The World Bank slashed its growth forecast to 4.7 percent from an earlier projection of 6.1 percent.
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