Inflation remains primary concern for RBI: Gokarn
Mumbai: Days ahead of the mid-quarter review of the monetary policy on December 18, RBI Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn on Saturday said inflation continues to the primary concern for the central bank.
His comments come amid growth in the second quarter falling to 5.3 percent in July-September period, triggering demands for a rate cut by the RBI to boost the economy.
RBI should not do anything that provide some short-term stimulus to growth but also raises the risk of longer term inflation, he said at a Bombay Management Association event.
"One action is not necessarily going to make the difference. But there are risks associated as well," Gokarn said, adding inflation continues to be the primary concern of the monetary policy.
According to many analysts, the central bank will hold the rates on December 18 as inflation continues to be high, at 7.45 percent in October.
At the last policy announcement, RBI had left the short-term lending rates unchanged at 8 percent.
Gokarn said RBI should not fall prey to trying out something opposite if one set of actions, in this case the anti-inflationary stance, is not working.
"The belief that just because something does not seem to be working, the exact opposite is the solution (is incorrect)," he said.
On Thursday RBI Governor D Subbarao had hinted that rate cuts are on the anvil as growth has moderated steeply.
"We are expecting that inflation will trend down starting Q4. As we go into our mid-quarter policy on December 18 and the quarterly policy on January 29, we will take into account the growth-inflation trajectory and calibrate our monetary policy accordingly," the Governor had said.
However, Subbarao also said at 7.5 percent, inflation is still high, though it has come down from its peak.
To tame inflation, the Reserve Bank since March 2010 has announced 13 consecutive rate hikes. However, inflation is still above the RBI's 5 percent comfort levels.
Gokarn said a commitment to walking on a fiscal consolidation roadmap and introducing tax reforms like GST will help the country avoid a downgrade by global rating agencies.
"A roadmap for fiscal consolidation, a significant tax reform (GST) are what we need in terms of giving some comfort on where the fiscal situation is headed, as it creates some resources available for government investments. And certainly, if this roadmap is adhered to, then I think the rating downgrade risk is sort of automatically dealt with."
Noting the positive impact on state finances when VAT was introduced, he said GST will have a similar impact.
"The VAT had tremendously helped the states in reducing their fiscal deficits, and the same kind of dividend is possible with GST as well," he said, without elaborating further.
On the fiscal deficit, the RBI Deputy Governor underlined the need to invest in capital formation.
Gokarn said during high growth period of 2004-07, there was a lot of focus on capital formation and the work done on building highways is so far helping the economy.
Talking of the volatile rupee, he said the currency is fanning inflation but also conceded that it is very difficult to protect rates given the relatively small forex reserves and the high current account deficit.