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Morgan Stanley raises India's GDP forecast to 5.4% for FY13

Morgan Stanley raised India's FY13 GDP growth forecast from 5.1 percent to 5.4 percent on Monday.

New Delhi: Morgan Stanley on Monday raised India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 5.4 percent from 5.1 percent projected earlier citing better than expected GDP growth in the September quarter and stabilisation in non-agriculture growth indicators.

However, the pace of recovery will be slow in view of macro stability challenges such as high inflation, current account deficit and loan-deposit ratio, Morgan Stanley said adding it has kept its GDP projections for FY14 unchanged at 6.2 percent in line with this view.

"We raise our GDP growth forecast for F2013 to 5.4 percent from 5.1 percent based on the better than expected GDP growth for quarter ended September and also stabilisation in non-agriculture growth indicators," Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

According to the global financial services firm, the headline GDP growth of India will be at 5.4 percent in FY2013 (up from 5.1 percent projected earlier) and 6.2 percent (unchanged) in F2014.

The Indian economy registered a GDP growth of 5.3 percent for the quarter ended September. The economy grew by 5.5 percent growth in the June quarter and 6.7 percent in the quarter ended September 30, 2011.

"We believe that headline GDP growth will begin to show a gradual recovery trend in the quarter ending March 2013: We look for farm output to normalise and non-agriculture output to continue to improve, albeit slowly," the report said.


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