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Poll results, Budget likely to keep trade volatile

Last Updated: Sunday, March 4, 2012 - 10:41

New Delhi: Markets are likely to witness huge volatility in the next fortnight as Union Budget, RBI's monetary policy review and State Assembly elections results, which will have a candid bearing on bourses, are scheduled in the next 10-15 days, experts said.

Crude price movement is another key factor that will impact the investor sentiment, they added.

"The next major event is the UP elections results which will be out on March 6. If the Congress or its allies win, then the markets will take it positively and vice versa," Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Research Head Alex Mathews said.

"Crude prices have to be watched closely as sustained high prices may lead to a deferment in rate cuts," an expert said.

After UP poll results, events like RBI's monetary policy review (March 15) and Union Budget (March 16) will lead to a cautious approach that may lead to investors becoming jittery, said Bonanza Portfolio Research Analyst Shanu Goel.

As these key events unfold, markets are expected to see bouts of volatility, brokers said.

For the second straight week, markets fell with investors booking profits at existing high levels ahead of the eventful fortnight.

The BSE barometer Sensex ended the week with a 1.6 percent loss at 17,636.99 points.

Market participants said the rising crude oil prices and a lower-than-expected GDP growth number impacted the sentiment.

The Indian economy grew at 6.1 percent, the slowest since 2009, for the third quarter of the fiscal. Higher oil prices dampened the sentiment, too, as it costlier crude could translate to higher inflation and hold RBI from lowering lending rates. Brent crude was trading in the range of USD 123 a barrel last week.

Stock markets will remain closed on Thursday (March 8) on account of Holi.


First Published: Sunday, March 4, 2012 - 10:41
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