Top takeaways: What Economic Survey says about farm sector, GDP and inflation

The survey estimates that GDP will have grown 6.75% in the current fiscal year ending in March.

Top takeaways: What Economic Survey says about farm sector, GDP and inflation

New Delhi: India`s economy should grow between 7 percent and 7.5 percent in FY19 with exports and private investment set to rebound, Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian said in the annual Economic Survey presented on Monday.

The survey, which sets the stage for Finance Minister Arun Jaitley`s annual budget on Thursday, forecast that economic management will be challenging in the coming year.

The survey estimates that gross domestic product will have grown 6.75 percent in the current fiscal year ending in March.

Here are the highlights of the report:

GROWTH

* 2018/19 Growth seen at 7 percent to 7.5 percent year-on-year
* 2017/18 GDP growth seen at 6.75 percent year-on-year
* 2017/18 industry growth seen at 4.4 percent 
* 2017/18 farm sector growth seen at 2.1 percent
* Economic management will be challenging in the coming year
* Biggest source of upside to growth to be from exports
* Cyclical conditions may lead to lower tax and non-tax revenues in 2017/18
* Private investment poised to rebound.

FISCAL DEFICIT

* Target for fiscal consolidation specially in a pre-election year can carry a high risk of credibility
* Current account deficit for 2017/18 expected to average 1.5-2 percent of GDP
* Pause in general govt fiscal consolidation cannot be ruled out in 2017/18
* Suggests modest (fiscal) consolidation that signals a return to the path of gradual but steady deficit reductions

 

INFLATION, POLICY RATES

* Persistently high oil prices remain a key risk, to affect inflation 
* If inflation doesn`t deviate from current levels policy rates can be expected to remain stable
* Average CPI inflation seen at 3.7 percent in 2017/18