UP-coming polls for Rahul Gandhi

By: Arun Chaubey Finally putting all speculation to rest, Congress president Sonia Gandhi gave her nod that Rahul Gandhi will lead the party in UP assembly polls next year. The question arises will Rahul Gandhi be able to resuscitate the sagging morale of the faction-ridden party organization in the state. Or it is too early to give him this responsibility when he is yet to show his mass appeal. While people are fed up with the present dispensation in UP, the Congress has failed to launch a serious movement to prove the failure of the state government. The Congress Party’s Nainital conclave would be remembered because here a usually evasive party chief gave a direct reply to Rahul Gandhi’s future role saying, “Yes, he will be active in UP perhaps before the election starts or even earlier”. If we try to analyse the Rae Bareli polls, which Rahul Gandhi is credited to have managed on his own, there are some other factors that seem to have added to the overwhelming victory of Sonia Gandhi. Although in Rae Bareli people do not seem to have voted on caste lines, this very factor will be very important if we look at Rahul’s political battle in the coming assembly polls. UP`s political landscape is dominated by scheduled castes-34% (Pasi 19%, Chamar 11%), Ahir or Yadav (13%), Muslims (9%), forward castes including Brahmin and Rajput with almost equal number (16%), and rest of the 28% voters consisting of Lodh (6%), Kurmis, Kanchi, Murao and other castes. Besides, the BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) had decided not to field any candidate against Sonia Gandhi, thereby transferring its vote bank to the Congress. The candidates from other parties in the fray included SP`s Raj Kumar Chowdhury -got 57,003 votes; BJP`s Vinay Katiyar -only 19,657 votes); and Uma Bharati-supported Apna Dal`s Prabha Singh Lodh, who brought up the tail. The en-masse transfer of BSP votes certainly played a crucial role in Rae Bareli, but this would not happen in the assembly polls as Mayawati, almost certain to emerge as the strongest leader, has decided to go it alone. The party has even started declaring the probable candidates. The BSP citing failure of the law and order in the state and atrocities on Dalits has moblised its cadres. It has tried to woo forward castes by organising rallies in the name of Parashuram Sammelans. The deserters from BJP are knocking at Mayawati’s door for tickets, as the combination of Dalits and forward castes seems to be a sure formula to win the elections. In eastern UP, which in the post-Mandal era had become an arena to show who was stronger between BJP and SP, the BSP has gradually trespassed courtesy the failure of BJP. SP has dominated in this part of the state, but Mau riots, murder of BJP MLA Krishnanand Rai, and continuing deaths due to Japanese encephalitis in more than 15 districts have taken their toll. While in western UP there is a cut-throat battle between the BSP, the RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal), and the SP. The BJP stalwart Kalyan Singh also belongs to this region but he will have tough time convincing voters to vote for his party. Since the Congress party in west UP won four Lok Sabha seats- Saharanpur, Mathura, Aligarh and Hapur in the last general elections, it needs to moblise its cadres to woo the potential SP voters in the neighbouring constituencies. For Rahul Gandhi, eastern UP appears easier as SP is losing ground here. The region is dominated by forward castes, and Rahul could be more successful in wooing the disillusioned youths, and farmers in the absense of any industrial development worth the name in the last five years. He needs to launch a serious campaign citing development issues related to common masses, just as the present state government came to power citing this slogan. Rahul may not then win this election on his own, but he would have made a nice beginning. 18% of the state’s population comprises Muslim voters, who influence voting in about 35 Lok Sabha constituencies. The Muslims would play a significant role, as in the recent past they have voted very strategically so as not to waste their votes. But they will need to be convinced that Congress stands a chance of winning against the Samajwadi Party. The OBC voters, who have become the recent dilemma of the Congress courtesy Arjun Singh, comprise about 50% voters in the state. They would play a crucial role. The coming election would also show how far the Mandal part II is going to help the Congress Party.