US preparing Afghan bailout

Biplob Ghosal The ground is dotted with landmines and the air is filled with uncertainty. People have ‘blank’ expressions and there’s a deathly silence all around - only to be broken by gunshots and blasts at regular intervals. This is the Afghanistan of 2009. Even after eight years since the ouster of the Taliban, the war-torn country seems to be in a tunnel where there is very little - if any - light at the end. As the situation worsens and the US finds it hard to go it alone the whole way, it has called a meeting at The Hague to find a solution to the conundrum called Afghanistan. The meeting, which would see regional stakeholders such as Pakistan, Russia, India and Iran sit together with the US to find a way out of the stalemate in Afghanistan, comes in the wake of the Obama administration’s support for a dialogue with ‘good’ Taliban, which is willing to cut ties with al Qaeda. US President Barack Obama has already acknowledged that despite the presence of foreign troops, Afghanistan is on the brink of disaster. Besides, several world leaders, including Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, have also said openly that the war in Afghanistan cannot be won. Seen in this light, the initiative by the new US administration to seek ‘a regional solution’ is encouraging. Henry Kissinger, in an article in the International Herald Tribune, has argued: “Afghanistan is almost the archetypal international problem requiring a multilateral solution for the emergence of a political framework.” Such an outcome would be possible, he suggests, only if Afghanistan’s neighbours, principally Pakistan, agree on a policy of restraint and opposition to terrorism. Though the US enjoys good ties with India, it is still at loggerheads with both Russia and Iran. It is hoped that the crucial meeting that is to be held at The Hague would bring out ideas that could add to the solution of the Afghan problem. However, the meeting, which is said to be a constructive initiative, might face some obstacles. Islamabad and New Delhi - seen as the key in solving the Afghan insurgency – might have differences over the solution as the former accuses the latter of unnecessarily getting involved in the issue, since India doesn’t share a border with Afghanistan. It is a known fact that Pakistan will oppose anything that is helpful to India. The attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul in July 2008 is reflective of this attitude. Meanwhile, both the Afghan and Indian officials, besides the CIA, have spoken of ISI`s involvement in the attack. Russia and Iran could be the other stumbling blocks. Both are anti-US and have their own share of differences with Uncle Sam. The US and Iran are at odds over Tehran’s nuclear programme, while Russia is opposed to the US’ plan of deploying a missile defence system in its neighbourhood. The Western forces have been fighting in Afghanistan for the last seven years, but the results are hardly encouraging. The recent announcement by the Obama administration to send 17,000 more troops to Afghanistan is ample proof that the situation there is not under control. Commenting on the ground situation in the war-torn nation, NATO spokesman James Appathurai said, "Our assessment is basically this - in the north and west of the country, things are basically stable or getting better; in the east, in many ways they are getting better as well even though there`s a lot more fighting; in the south it`s not getting better, it`s a stalemate.” Security analyst Dana Allin of London`s International Institute for Strategic Studies, says that NATO`s achievements in Afghanistan are mixed at best. "I don`t think anybody really appreciated the dimensions of the Afghanistan mission, the inherent difficulty of trying to fight a counter-insurgency against an insurgency that has pretty much free sanctuary in the neighbouring Pakistan." It may also be noted that outlining a new policy for Afghanistan, Obama said that Taliban and al Qaeda leadership are planning attacks on the US and other nations and "for the American people, this border region has become the most dangerous place in the world." “But, this is not simply an American problem, far from it. It is, instead, an international security challenge of the highest order," he added. However, according to Allin, "The most difficult problem is undoubtedly Pakistan. There is a sanctuary in Pakistan that is believed to be where most of the high value al Qaeda terrorist leaders are based. And, it is certainly a sanctuary for Taliban fighters to come back." India’s role According to many analysts, India can play a crucial role in bringing down the Afghan insurgency. India’s strategic interest in the region is vital as it is a doorway to energy-rich Central Asian states such as Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. India has always maintained good relations with Afghanistan. It was in the 1990s after Pakistan-backed Taliban rose to power that India’s influence faded. India, however, continued to provide assistance to the anti-Taliban resistance. Apart from the oil and mineral rich reserves in Central Asia, India also has many development projects underway which bring in money as well as provide employment. Afghan shawls and dry fruits, among other things, come into India both legally and illegally. Further, Indian films and television soaps are very popular among the Afghan population. However, the most important aspect is that if India could set up an active administration over there then it would be very convenient to keep a close watch on Pakistan and the notorious ISI. Afghan experts Barnett R Rubin and Abubakar Siddique in a 2006 USIP report suggested that Pakistan supported the anti-Soviet mujahideen and then the Taliban "to ensure that in the event of conflict with India, Afghanistan would provide Pakistan with support and use of its land and air space if needed." Not only this, South Asian experts Raja Karthikeya Gundu and Teresita C Schaffer in an April 2008 Center for Strategic and International Studies newsletter wrote that Pakistan sees India`s growing influence in Afghanistan as a threat, especially the new Indian air base in Farkhor, Tajikistan. It is high time that a comprehensive strategy is evolved to restore normalcy in Afghanistan. Seen in this perspective, the upcoming conference at The Hague could be a make-or-break as far as the fate of the war-ravaged nation is considered.