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Bangladesh mutiny – More than meets the eye

The BDR mutiny has more to it than meets the eye, and India must be quite wary of the developments in its neighbourhood.

Kamna Arora
With rifles in hands and badges on uniform, some Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) guards ambushed their commanding officers and killed at least 69 people. The 33-hour mutiny that started on February 25 was allegedly over poor pay and working conditions. But as the Bangladeshi Prime Minister has urged the US’ Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to assist in probing the incident, it is certain that there is more than meets the eye. Surely, India must be quite wary of the development in its neighbourhood. Since its inception in 1971, Bangladesh has witnessed political bloodshed, coups and counter-coups. In fact, a military coup in 1975 targeted Sheikh Hasina`s own family, which saw her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh`s first Head of State, being killed along with his wife and three sons. Hasina and her sister were not in Bangladesh at the time. The recent mutiny by the country`s border security force has yet again shaken the country that just returned to democracy after two years of Emergency Rule imposed by an Army-backed government. It did not only send a stark reminder to Hasina that the road to providing security to her own countrymen is beset with danger, but caused many eyebrows to raise in Bangladesh’s neighbourhood, especially in India. Already entangled with Pakistan on 26/11 attacks and infiltration, Indian security forces must now be bracing themselves to counter the threat flaring from the country’s East. An analysis of the revolt clearly indicates that the bloody incident did not spur out suddenly, but was well planned and executed on large scale. It will be nothing but ignorance if one rules out the involvement of a stronger hand in this mutiny that clearly aimed at destabilising the new government in Dhaka. It is hard to digest that poor pay and working conditions could be the reason behind the outrage. As per a survivor of the massacre, the mutineers - their faces covered with red bandanas - took control of the BDR conference hall and killed the force’s chief Shakil Ahmed in a hail of bullets within 10 minutes of their mission. The bodies were found lying in ditches and many were tied at the hands and feet. It is imperative to ascertain who would benefit the most from killing the country`s senior most military leaders, and by giving a serious blow to Bangladesh’s security system while instilling fear that more violence could follow. Professor of Economics at Jahangornagar University, Abdul Bayes, wrote an editorial in The Daily Star and raised some significant questions. "How could soldiers get arms instantly from the store that lies almost one kilometre away from the (meeting) hall? Second, why should thousands of (soldiers) leave the hall as if they knew before what was to come next? Third, how could thousands of the (soldiers) flee despite the fact that the whole area was cordoned? Fourth, the killings, tortures, and disposal of dead bodies seems to indicate that the whole episode was pre-planned and done in a systematic fashion." The elections in December 2008 pitted left-leaning and India-friendly Awami League (AL) against the right-of-centre nationalist and Pakistan-friendly Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Led by Hasina, AL has had a turbulent past with the country’s military establishment since the leader’s father was killed in a military coup. The BNP came into being shortly after the Army coup, and has since preserved a firm association with military. The recent mutiny is seen by many as revenge by the BNP for its election loss. Albeit rejected by Pakistan, the country’s Inter-Services Intelligence’s footprints could also be found in the mutiny. It will be in BNP’s immediate interest to topple the AL by a promoting blood-spattered confrontation between the civilian government and the military. And if BNP takes over, ISI will get enough assistance to fuel unrest in India’s northeastern corridor. Media reports suggest that Bangladesh’s shipping magnate Salauddin Qadeer Chowdhury is believed to be involved in this brutal incident. Notably, Chowdhury has close contacts with the BNP as well as Pakistan’s ISI. India cannot afford to take Bangladesh mutiny calmly. Recently, Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee wrote a letter to Hasina and backed “a democratic, stable government” in Dhaka with an offer of support and assistance at “this hour of difficulty”. However, New Delhi seems to be refraining itself from talking too much about BDR mutiny as it risks fuelling anti-India sentiments in the Islamist country. Understanding that a shaken Bangladeshi Army’s discipline, as well as the incident’s repercussions pose, grave security threat to India, New Delhi will leave no stone unturned behind the scenes to strengthen the AL and keep the Bangladeshi military intact.