Bangladesh: Will elections usher in change?

Abhishek After over two years of Army rule which was lifted on the midnight of December 17, Bangladesh is all geared up to welcome democracy. But keeping in mind its violence- marred history, upheavals, and bouts of military rule, one can say that the country has had its share of problems and uncertainties to deal with. One of the most densely populated countries in Asia with over 140 million people, majority of Bangladesh’s problems date back to its past and its fight for independence. Bangladesh’s Parliament, facing its ninth elections, has 300 seats out of which 45 seats are reserved for women. While there are as many as 1500 candidates battling it out in the elections, half of these are independents and 50 women. Each candidate is allowed to contest from three seats at the maximum. There are as many as 48 leaders contesting in the elections against whom corruption charges have been filed. There are 81 million voters in the electoral rolls of Bangladesh. Out of these almost one third are young voters who were born after independence. Interestingly, women outnumber men this time around. The election would be monitored by as many as 2,00,000 observers from other nations, including India, to ensure free and fair elections. Bangladesh would be the second South Asian country after Pakistan to make the transition from Army rule to democracy in 2008. It is to get its civilian government on December 29 after two-year of rule by an army-backed caretaker government. Bangladesh was known as East Bengal before it was named East Pakistan in 1955. Bangladesh got its freedom from Pakistan or West Pakistan after waging a war in 1971 under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahaman, who was helped by the Indian Army. Though the first regime in Bangladesh was a democratic government led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman whose Awami League Party had secured a majority of seats, his regime came to an end when he was assassinated after being highly criticised for making constitutional amendments. Khandakar Moshtaque replaced Mujib for a short while before an upheaval by Army chief General Zia-ur Rahman. Zia-ur Rahman was elected for five-year term as President in 1978. In 1981 Zia was also assassinated and Lieutenant General HM Ershad took over the control in the country. In 1986 Ershad resigned as Army chief and retired from military service and was elected as President in the same year. After rescheduling the Parliamentary elections in 1988 Ershad’s party Jatiya Party (JP) assumed power and passed a controversial amendment declaring Islam as the religion of the state. The opposition united against Ershad as a result of which he had to resign in the late 1990. The year 1991 saw another change of government when slain President Zia-ur Rahman’s widow Khaleda Zia came to power replacing Ershad. The year saw change not only in the government but also in the constitution as the governing power was returned to the Prime Minister. From the year 1991 to 1996, Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) ruled the country while her arch rival Sheikh Hasina Wajed and her Awami League (AL) party held office from 1996 to 2001. But Zia and her Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) returned to power again from 2001 to 2006. Interestingly this would be more like a deja vu for Bangladesh politics when both Zia and Hasina are contesting in the parliamentary elections. Earlier, both of them had come together to oust Army Chief HM Ershad from the power. After the two national parties failed to reach a consensus leading to a standoff between them emergency was imposed and Iajuddin Ahmed became the President, backed by Armed forces. The caretaker government has since been in power and as per Bangladesh Constitution has taken the responsibility for conducting elections in the state. It is quite clear that Bangladesh politics has been dominated by two families i.e. Mujibur Rahman and Zia-ur Rahman. This time around too the two parties, or leaders, who are in the fray for the top post in general elections happen to be from these two families. Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina and their parties, BNP and AL party respectively, have been major rivals in Bangladesh politics post HM Ershad’s regime. But both of them have been under scrutiny when they were charged with grafting, extortion and corruption. Khaleda Zia and BNP Former President Khaleda Zia and her party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has allied with Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). Zia’s alliance has been playing the Islam card and hoping to fetch Muslim votes by calling for votes harping on Bangladesh sovereignty and Islam’s sake. There are two other parties with which BNP has allied, the four-party alliance is harping on the Islamic teachings as their main ploy to draw voters. She even urged public to vote for her to save Islam. After the death of her husband in 1981 Zia became the chairman of the BNP and was chosen the Prime Minister in 1991. After completing her term she returned to power in 2001 when she joined hands with Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami party but her term saw a rapid rise in the militancy on the Bangladesh soil. Zia’s image was also tarnished when she and her sons were named in corruption charges. Both were even jailed in the case. Zia’s son has also been named in the Siemens bribery case. Both her sons had left Bangladesh to get treatment abroad whereas Zia refused to leave Bangladesh to get her treatment abroad. All these charges have been a setback to Zia’s run up to the top post as in her agenda she had also pledged to fight corruption apart from terrorism. Sheikh Hasina Wajed and AL party A former Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina (1996-2001) and her Awami League (AL) party has joined hands with former President HM Ershad’s Jatiya Party (JP). Hasina’s alliance is in favour of instilling not only a democratic but also a secularist government and economic and social development is high on their agenda, called “a charter for change” giving a futuristic and planned development hope to the nation. But Hasina also has several corruption charges against her names. She was released on a parole this year to go US to get her treatment. She also asked the Bangladesh court to permanently lift the corruption charges on her.Terrorism The three major terrorist groups in Bangladesh are Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh, Harkatul Jihad and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJi), which has a branch in Pakistan too. Jama’atul Mujahideen is the same terrorist outfit which claimed responsibility for the 2005 serial bomb blasts in the country. The capability of these terrorists can be understood by the very fact that they have been continuously threatening both the contenders for the PM’s chair, Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina. One such grenade attack in BNP rally made Sheikh Hasina hearing impaired. There were as many as for assassination attempts were made at Hasina’s life besides many being foiled. These Bangladesh terrorist organisations are inspired from Osama bin Laden and Taliban regime in Afghanistan and favour Islamic governance. India The Bangladesh terrorist organisations are also responsible for spreading terrorism in India especially in Northeast HuJI is one such organisation which is said to have been aligned with United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA ). Indian intelligence agencies also warned Bangladesh of a suspected suicide attack on Sheikh Hasina by HuJI militants. The reported handshake between HuJI and ISI has also upped the potency of the organisation. Besides cross border terrorism illegal migrants from Bangladesh to India has also been a bone of contention between the two nations. As per the reports there are millions of Bangladeshis who are illegally staying in India some of them even carry voter identity card and ration card as proofs. Another difficulty is to segregate between Indian and Bangladeshi nationals as their language is also that of Bengal natives. A call was raised to send back illegal Bangladeshi migrants after Jaipur serial blasts which was said to be plotted by HuJI. Indian intelligence agencies accused the terrorist organisations of recruiting Bangladeshi nationals to carry out such terror activities and rise in the north east India is also attributed to this problem. Besides terrorist activities illegal immigration also raises the human trafficking in the region every year thousand of illegal Bangladeshi girls and child are forced into prostitution. Future of Bangladesh The parliamentary election gives another hope to Bangladesh public of political stability and a democratic government. But the history of Bangladesh has it that whenever a party or alliance has been voted to power it was either toppled due to military coup or faced strong protests and boycott from opposition. But the intensity with which caretaker government, backed by armed forces, has so far gone about their task of organising parliamentary elections this time around it seems democracy is finally here to stay. But, as always, we should remember that Army has an upper hand in the politics of the country.