J&K polls – A triumph of democracy

Ritesh K Srivastava The peaceful conclusion of the seven-phased Assembly Elections in Jammu & Kashmir, which brought an end to the six-month long President’s Rule, could also be seen as a ‘triumph of democracy and political empowerment of the troubled state’. Although, no political party managed to get a clear majority, the results are certainly a major setback for the separatist forces, which gave calls for a total boycott of the electoral process in J&K. Speaking precisely, the outcome can also be described as the people’s personal response to governance considering the two-month long violent Amarnath agitation, which divided the state on communal lines. And more recently, the deadly terror attacks in Mumbai, which evoked a collective hatred for Pakistan supported elements and thereby strengthening the Hindu sentiment. The unexpected higher turnout and the electoral results have sent firm signals to neighbouring Pakistan and the international community that the common voter in J&K now wants an accountable government. This election has proved that the common mass is no longer interested in the divisive politics and is instead looking for a pragmatic leadership, which is wiling to restore peace and prosperity. The electoral exercise has also reaffirmed the people’s faith in democratic institutions and also indicates gradual polarisation of political parties, which is an indicator of a heathy democracy.Vote for peace & development Voting in J&K, this time, was purely for peace and development. Ignoring the poll boycott given by the separatists, people came to vote in large numbers keeping in mind local issues like unemployment, education, healthcare and civic amenities. The common voter preferred development and peace over militancy and independence. People of J&K have now realised that development and resolution of Kashmir problem are two separate things and the issues of common concern cannot be overlooked for long. Emotive issues took a backseat this time and votes were cast purely on merits. Irrespective of one’s political affiliation and ideology, only those candidates were chosen who paid heed to the common concerns of their electorate. Since the chosen representatives were actually coming to power in the past few elections, the voters had faith that their voice is being heard and it will be heard in future too. Their participation would beyond doubts create an enabling environment for the peaceful and amicable settlement of the Kashmir issue. Reduced militancy Careful planning of the seven-phased election schedule, tight security arrangement and less fear factor due to reduced militancy probably encouraged people to participate in large numbers. The state has witnessed a notable reduction in militant activities in the last one year and so the common voter was not afraid of coming out to cast his vote. This was evident in areas where a low percentage was recorded in the last elections, there was a higher turnout this time. This showed that people wanted to participate in the democratic process in a big way. The EC also deserves kudos for providing a terror-free environment to the political parties for canvassing for the elections in a free and fair manner. The Commission was aware that the legitimacy of the elections will be lost if political parties are unable to canvass or mobilise support and, second, if people are kept away due to militant activities. NC - The Real Winner The pro-India NC emerged as the single largest party in the J&K polls under the able leadership of Farooq Abdullah and his son Omar Abdullah. The NC surpassed the separatist-backed PDP in an election that saw a strong turnout of 61.23 % in the face of a Pakistan-sponsored call for boycott, strengthening the credibility of democratic process. NC survived a huge drop in vote share in both Kashmir Valley and Jammu region to finish ahead of PDP which - backed by proxy support from the separatists and the loyalty of its strongholds in southern part of the Valley - won 21 seats. The NC, with its 28 seats, is most likely to form the next government with the support of Congress, which has 21 seats. The Congress-NCP combine will surely pass the arithmetic of Assembly required for forming the next government. The move is likely to benefit the two as it will bring Congress back in the power equation, which would help it in plugging the gaps and re-strengthening cadre and organisation. Congress – The Kingmaker The Congress party has virtually emerged as a kingmaker in this election, and the gamble of holding early polls at a turbulent time in the aftermath of Amarnath agitation paid off well. The development plank of the Congress was also not totally rejected by the voters. The party’s secular credentials and a clean image of CM Ghulam Nabi Azad further saved it from a virtual wipe-out. After realising that the Amarnath agitation has eroded its vote bank, the grand old party too lended its support to the movement. However, its efforts didn`t bore the expected fruits and the land row saw many of its bigwigs including former Deputy Chief Minister Mangat Ram Sharma, sitting Congress MP Lal Singh (Kathua), former Congress ministers Gulchain Singh Charak (Bishnah), Gharu Ram (Suchetgarh) and Mula Ram (Raipur Domana)losing the battle. However, the Congress` performance was good in the Doda district (the area dominated by Muslims), where it emerged victorious in five out of six seats. The Amarnath controversy had little effect in the Poonch-Rajouri belt where the NC won three seats, while the Congress and the PDP tasted success at two seats each out of the total seven seats. Former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad comfortably won the Bhaderwah Assembly seat in a one-sided battle while party candidates Ghulam Mohammad Saroori and Abdul Majid Wani emerged victorious from the Inderwal and Doda Assembly seats, respectively. The Congress this time also won the Ramban and Banihal Assembly segment where party had given mandate to young candidates. Congress-led UPA government’s repeated assurances, increased financial assistance and numerous projects to foster the pace of development in J&K has also played a pivotal role in Congress’ good showing in the polls. The voters of the state rewarded the Congress party for inaugurating the 450-MW Baglihar hydro electric power project built on river Chenab in Ramban district of Jammu & Kashmir. The UPA government’s effort to put Kashmir on the rail map by starting the first train service from the Nowgam station in Srinagar further consolidated the Congress party’s vote bank. In the wake of a hung House, the Congress is most likely to play a second fiddle in the process of government formation. If the party joins hands with the NC, the partnership would be beneficial for the two parties in coming Lok Sabha polls. PDP – A Good Comeback The reformist People’s Democratic Party (PDP) with its 21 seats has emerged as the second biggest political force in the state. Congress and PDP ruled the Muslim-majority state in an alliance between 2002 and July 2008. However, the latter withdrew support from the Congress-led Gulam Nabi Azad government and President’s Rule was imposed in the wake of the volatile Amarnath agitation. The PDP has done fairly well because it helped de-militarise the state and restored people’s confidence by ordering the security forces back to the barracks. A Congress-PDP alliance cannot be ruled out but political analysts feel that Congress would be more inclined towards NC owing to its support during the Vote of Confidence. Joining hands with NC will also give an opportunity to the Congress to punish PDP for withdrawing its support at the height of Amarnath row. Party time for saffron brigade This election has, by all means, done wonders for the saffron brigade, which not only extended its base by winning 11 out of the total 87 Assembly seats but also pushed the Congress and other bigwigs to introspect what actually went wrong. Undoubtedly helped by the hindutva factor, BJP emerged as the major gainer in the polls and also sent a strong message to the Congress leadership that its downfall in the state has begun. The saffron brigade, in an impressive showing, also managed to rake up the issue of discrimination with Jammu and delimitation and linked it with the "political empowerment of Jammu". The saffron brigade, which defeated Congress in the war of nerves in the crucial phase, is all set to play a "nationalist opposition" in the state Assembly. In view of its ideological differences with the PDP and the NC, there seems to be no possibility of any post election alliance with the two parties in the process of government formation. However, it would be wrong to say that only Amarnath Shrine Board Land transfer row contributed to BJP’s surprisingly good performance in the state. The saffron brigade has been trying to widen its base and make its presence felt in J&K as well as in the NE states for quite some time. Encouraged by the party’s victory in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh, BJP conducted a very scientific and well-coordinated campaign, with the party workers, and the senior leaders fully participating. In the aftermath of the Amarnath controversy, the party managed to win support of the displaced Kashmiri Pandits, who played a pivotal role in BJP’s victory in Jammu. People really wanted to give vent to their ire as their religious sentiments were hurt and Amarnath thus became an issue in Jammu. BJP’s performance in Jammu should be seen as an expression of the regional aspirations rather than religious sentiments. Even in the last elections, BJP candidates lost with a narrow margin in Jammu. Since, BJP has always accused the PDP and the NC of being in the same league with separatists, it will not risk supporting either of them. Not even from outside as it would affect its winning prospects in the next Parliamentary polls. The saffron brigade will certainly have no say in the government’s affair. The BJP bettered its tally of eight seats in the 1996 polls (one seat in 2002 ) by wresting many seats from Congress and bagged Jammu West, Jammu East, Marh, Nagrota, R S Pura, Suchetgarh, Domana, (Jammu district), Bani, Basholi, Hirangar (Kathua district) and Reasi (Reasi district). In Jammu region, Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Udhampur, Reasi were the hotbed of the two-month-long Jammu agitation, which completely changed the poll dynamics in the entire state. Interestingly, despite its historic win, the saffron brigade’s charisma and agitation policy failed to woo voters in Bishnah, Samba and Vijaypur. A lesson for the separatists This election has given a clear message that separatists and their divisive policies have no takers in our country. The higher voter turn out has also raised serious questions over the legitimacy of the Hurriyat faction. The issue has forced them to seriously ponder whether it was an unwise decision by J&K separatist leaders to call for a total poll boycott during the assembly elections? Before the Election Commission announced holding elections in the state it was thought that the electoral exercise would be meaningless. However, the voters in J&K showed that they still had faith in democracy and democratic institutions and voted in large numbers facing all odds. Although some people have underestimated the electoral exercise by saying that people voted because they wanted development and peace. This has nothing to do with their long cherished idea of `freedom` from India. But whatever one says, all political parties interested and involved in the affairs of J&K will now have to understand the impulse of the common man. By ignoring the ground reality, the separatists continue to remain in denial mode. Even the most influential of all separatist leaders Syed Ali Shah Geelani, the chairman of the hawkish Hurriyat group, failed to make any impact. Senior separatist leaders including Sajjad Lone, Mirwaiz Umer Farooq have maintained that the voting figures have nothing to do with the resolution of the Kashmir problem. Defending their shocking isolation and loss, the separatists have said that the government put separatist leaders under house arrest, converted the valley into a fortified security force camp and cracked down on their peaceful marches and protests. There is no denying the fact that polling was conducted amidst tight security, but no body was forced to vote. The elaborate security arrangements put in place by the Election Commission prevented rigging, booth capturing, poll related violence and barring one or two minor incidents polling was largely peaceful. The free and fair polling conducted by the Election Commission was also acknowledged by the observers of the international community. Whatever may be the reason for the high voter turnout in the valley, the separatists shall definitely have to think of some better strategy, lest, they will be distanced from the common man in Kashmir. For Pakistan, it’s now high time to realise that its proxy war in J&K in the name of independence will bore no fruits in the days to come. Conclusion Since no political party has secured an absolute majority, the state is now set to get a coalition government. The outcome of the electoral process has proved that local issues like water, electricity, infrastructure and good governance will continue to play a major role in the future elections as well. The political parties willing to play a major role in the affairs of J&K will have to pay heed to the concerns of the common man. The ruling coalition at the Centre should now take the maximum advantage of the improved situation and must focus on integrating the state completely into the Union of India.zee