Will the Brahmin tilt be crucial in Phase VII?

Arun Chaubey Phase VII of UP elections on 59 seats will decide the fate of former Union Minister Beni Prasad Verma, BSP state chief Lalji Verma, ministers in the Mulayam cabinet including Ambika Choudhary, Ram Govind Choudhary, Sharadanand Anchal, Avadhesh Prasad, Harishankar Tiwari and Sitaram Nishad. The last phase of polls covering nine districts of Faizabad, Ambedkarnagar, Gorakhpur, Mahrajganj, Kushinagar, Deoria, Azamgarh, Mau and Ballia has a considerable strength of Brahmin voters, who would play a crucial role to make or mar the electoral fate of any political party. Of the 59 electoral seats, the Brahmins comprise 30,000 to 80,000 of eligible voters on more than half the seats. The numerical strength of Brahmins is maximum in Gorakhpur constituency (77,000), while the other seats where they would play a crucial role are: Bikapur (66,000), Milkipur(63,000), Kasia and Dwaba(60,000 each), Salempur and Barhaj (about 55,000), Katehari, Padrauna, Dhuriapar, Deoria and Fazilnagar (50,000 each), Bhatparrani and Bansdih, Jalalpur (about 48000 each), Rudrapur (45,000), Kariram, Bansgaon, Farenda, Siswa, Sewarahi and Laxmipur (40,000 each), Sahjanwa, Hata, Gauribazar and Ayodhya (35,000 each), Mahrajganj (37,000), Nathupur, Gopalpur, Rasda, Kopachit and Sohawal (30,000 each). On the rest of the seats barring Saraimir (only 4000), the Brahmin voters are in the range of 10,000 to 27,000. Despite this fact, the BJP in the 2002 polls had to bite the dust, as its traditional voters failed to support the party. However, in the last phase of UP polls, BJP is treading very cautiously. Of the 59 seats, 11 seats are reserved constituencies, and out of the remaining 48 general seats 15 have been allocated to Brahmins. The BJP could win only 10 seats and was a runner up at 9 places in 2002. BJP had to pay the price for being the ruling party. The BJP’s source of glory, the Ayodhya issue, too had failed to make any effect. The situation, however, has taken a U-turn this time around, as the hero of Ayodhya movement Kalyan Singh is back in the organisation, and Rajnath Singh at the apex is playing the Hindutva card hard to regain the lost glory. It may be noted here that Rajputs too comprise 6% of the electorate in six districts, barring Azamgarh and Mahrajganj, while their population is a maximum of 12% in Ballia. Besides this, among OBCs, Kurmis also comprise 6 to 8% in the six districts, barring Azamgarh, Mau and Ballia, where Bhars (6% each) play a crucial role. The BJP, banking on the caste combination of forward castes and OBCs that excludes Yadavs, is optimistic of dominating the last phase of the elections, which would also test the popularity of Yogi Adityanath-- BJP MP from Gorakhpur. Although Poorvanchal (Eastern UP) has given Chandrashekhar as Prime Minister to the nation and has also given other leaders like Dr Sampurnanand, Kamlapati Tripathi and Veer Bahadur Singh, the region has failed to keep pace with development. Once known for its aggressive participation in the freedom struggle, it has now earned the distinction of being the reservoir of strongmen. Citing non-development of the region, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh hit out at the Mulayam Singh Yadav government for "deteriorating" law and order situation and poor infrastructural facilities. He addressed a rally in Gorakhpur, and alleged that the funds for various Centrally-sponsored schemes in UP were diverted and the real benefits could not reach the needy people. Besides the PM, party high command Sonia Gandhi and Congress’ star campaigner Rahul Gandhi have attempted to expose the Mulayam government by refering to issues like Japanese Encephalitis and perennial floods as they traversed the region. The Congress which could win just four seats and struggled hard to remain second at only one place in the 2002 polls is hopeful of making a comeback this time because prior to the Ayodhya movement, it dominated the politics of Poorvanchal. However, it seems difficult in the present scenario. The party’s fiery leader Kapil Sibal also feels that the results would have been surprising “if the organisational structure had been strong”. Since the districts of Poorvanchal are dominated by the politics of caste and creed, the BSP has chalked out a shrewd strategy to make a clean sweep. Inheriting the legacy of the master craftsman of caste-politics, Kanshiram, Mayawati has fielded as many as nine Brahmin candidates. The party, which had won 17 seats and was runners up at 16 places in 2002, is hopeful of notching up several crucial seats propagating its new formula of Sarva Samaj. If we try to assess BSP’s caste mathematics in this phase, we see that besides Brahmins, the Scheduled Caste population is quite significant along with Muslims. The SC voters comprise 23 to 30% in Azamgarh, Ambedkar Nagar, Faizabad, Mau and Mahrajganj, while in the rest of the districts they are between 13 and 19%. Muslims are highest in Kushinagar (27%) and in the six districts they comprise 10 to 13% of voters, while in Ballia they form only 6% of the electorate. Although politics doesn’t follow a textbook, BSP finds favour in the given situation. Its caste card may shut the mouth of its opponent in this phase, and surprise even the outcome of exit polls. Shielding itself against all-round attack, the Samajwadi Party is fighting tooth and nail to retain its seats. Poorvanchal had extended whole-hearted support to make SP the single largest party in 2002 polls, but at present the same electorate seems to be floating in other directions. The party, which had won a maximum of 21 seats and was runners up at 17 places in 2002, has also fielded nine Brahmin candidates to extend its base. Relying on its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank, SP is facing an acid test in Azamgarh—the home district of its national general secretary Amar Singh, and in Ayodhya, where Beni Verma (Mulayam Singh’s friend for over 30 years turned foe) is contesting as an Independent candidate with the Congress party’s support. Since the SP rule has earned flak from several quarters in the wake of the Mau riots in 2005 and the murder of BJP MLA Krishnanad Tiwai, opposition parties are not sparing any opportunity to expose the Mulayam Singh government and take advantage in the elections. Besides, by giving tickets to Amarmani Tripathi, an accused in Madhumita murder case, from Laxmipur in Mahrajganj district, the party seems to have only added to its ignominy. How far the SP would be able to fight against such odds is interesting to watch, but the SP chief is still confident of maintaining the lead. It may be noted here that the highest number of "tainted" candidates are contesting in the Phase VII. Data released by UP Election Watch (UPEW) reveals that of the 934 candidates in fray, as many as 162 have criminal cases pending against them. Apna Dal nominee from Akbarpur, Pawan Pandey, leads the pack with 63 criminal cases against him. SP’s Indra Pratap Tiwari, who is contesting from Ayodhya, has 29 cases against him, while Independent candidate from Mau (Sadar) Mukhtar Ansari, an accused in the murder case of BJP leader Krishnanand Rai, comes close with 28 cases, said the UPEW. The SP has fielded the highest number of "tainted" candidates, followed by BJP-Apna Dal alliance, BSP and Congress. The SP also leads in the list of "crorepatis" with 27.27% of its candidates having assets worth more than Rs 1 crore, while BSP, Congress and BJP stand at 18.64, 12.28 and 11.32 % respectively, besides four among 336 Independents in fray are also "crorepatis". The Election Commission, which managed to pull off violence free elections so far, has deputed 639 companies of Central paramilitary forces to hold peaceful elections. Besides, the EC has taken special steps to control about 20 big mafia who are either fighting for themselves or extending support to their associates. The last phase would witness the casting of votes by 1.78 crore electorate including 81.80 lakh women voters.