Arun Chaubey
The Phase IV of Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 57 constituencies spread over 10 districts will decide the fate of about 922 candidates, including bureaucrat-turned-politician P L Punia from Fatehpur, UP Assembly Speaker Mata Prasad Pandey and Reshma Arif, wife of former Congress leader Arif Mohammad Khan from Bahriach.
Besides, one-day Chief Minister Jagdambika Pal, Dr Wakar Ahmad Shah, who locked horns with senior SP leader Beni Prasad Verma resulting into the latter floating a new party, Gita Singh, wife of UP's former DGP, Rakesh Verma, son of Beni Verma are also in the fray making this phase quite interesting.
The ten districts undergoing polls are: Sitapur, Barabanki, Gonda, Bahraich, Shrawasti, Basti, Sidharthnagar, Lakhimpur Khiri, Balrampur and Sant Kabir Nagar. About 1.57 crore voters will cast their votes at 15,700 polling booths. The EC has deployed as many as 650 companies of Central paramilitary forces to hold free and fair polls.
The Samajwadi Party, which won the maximum 31 seats in 2002, and remained second on 19 seats, had made a clean sweep. Because in majority of these constituencies falling under the ten districts it has the most concrete caste combination besides Muslim voters. Barring Basti (Muslims about 13%), in rest of the districts Muslims comprise 15 to 25% along with Yadavs (7 to 12%), except in Sant Kabir Nagar and Kurmis (6 to 13%), who dominate in the districts of Lakhimpur Khiri, Bahraich and Barabanki.
However, this combination seems to be crumbling in the face several factors. Japanese Encephalities claimed hundreds of lives in these districts. Besides, the revolt of Mulayam Singh’s loyal friend Beni Verma, who has good clout in Barabanki and Bahraich districts may create bottle necks in the victory trail of SP. Mulayam despite a series of marathon meeting in this region is facing an acid test.
Since Beni Verma’s newly floated outfit Samajwadi Kranti Dal (SKD) could not get recognition from the Election Commission, it is fighting on the symbol of the Indian Justice Party. Verma has fielded several candidates in his influence areas and is extending tacit support to other parties to defeat SP candidates at majority of places. He even has supported Reshma Arif, wife of Arif Mohammad Khan, who contested LS polls in 2004 on BJP ticket, from Bahriach.
BJP had won 14 seats in 2002, and was runners up at 19 places is also expecting a lot in this Phase IV election. It’s veteran backward faces like Kalyan Singh and Vinay Katiyar have traversed these constituencies to woo the scattered castes minus Yadavs along with its traditional vote bank of Forward Castes.
Political observers feel that the BJP may face difficulty in wooing Forward Castes, as BSP has tactically fielded Brahmins and other Forward Caste leaders to scuttle the BJP design. Otherwise, BJP does not appear to be affected by the Muslim-Yadav alliance, which has already lost winning combination of Kurmi vote bank due to Beni’s revolt.
Since Kurmi population has a strong base in these districts, the BJP’s pre-poll alliance partner Apna Dal has also fielded about 10 candidates to reap benefit.
Congress’ Muslim appeasement policy seems to be helping the BJP, which finds a positive indication of the polarisation of Hindu votes and if Rajnath Singh is to be believed, the party may repeat SP’s performance of 2002 in its favour.
As far as the prospects of BSP are concerned, it is virtually expecting the moon in this phase of polls. It had won nine seats and was at second place in 14 constituencies, it is going ahead with a slogan of Sarva Samaj i.e ‘society as a whole’. Mayawati with her latest Brahmin face and party’s Rajya Sabha MP Satish Chandra Mishra is not sparing any opportunity to woo Forward Castes. Brahmins form a good percentage of votes in Gonda (16%), Basti (14%), Balrampur (11%) and on an average 5 to 7% in rest of the districts of this phase. Along with Rajputs and other Forward Castes, the BSP seems to have a winning edge in majority of the constituencies.
BSP’s Dalit vote bank comprises 19 to 30% in all the 10 districts; of these Barabanki has 34% of Bahujan populace. Besides, tactical voting pattern of Muslims is likely to benefit BSP more than SP in the wake of an emerging BJP.
If we look at the prospect of the Congress Party in the wake of Rahul Gandhi’s road shows in districts of Gonda and Sidharthnagar, Prime Minister’s meetings in Lakhimpur Khiri and Bahraich, and Sonia Gandhi’s whirlwind tours to Basti and Balrampur districts, there seems to be a disillusionment with the present state government. But the political reality is that the party’s machinery is not oiled properly to put it in a winning situation.
The Party, which had won merely two seats and stood second on the same in 2002, all of sudden cannot expect a magical turn-around when other parties are going ahead with their concrete caste calculations. Although the party high command and Rahul Gandhi have ably conveyed the message of all-round failure of the Mulayam Singh government as well as the plight of the people, it does not mean they have been able to convert it into votes for themselves.
In the Phase IV big political parties have fielded about 255 candidates and smaller parties 252, while 415 Independents are trying their luck. Of the 922 candidates, 63 women are also in the fray; Congress has fielded 14, while 13 are from BJP.
Besides, there are as many as 116 candidates against whom an FIR is lodged, according to the UP Election Watch, an independent organisation keeping a tab over elections. Of these 116 candidates, 27 belong to SP, 16 to BJP, 15 to Congress, 12 to BSP, 6 to RLD, 24 to smaller parties and 16 are Independents.
According to the UPEW, there are 9 sensitive constituencies where four or more than that have criminal cases pending against them. These constituencies are: Naugarh, Balrampur, Menhdawal, Biswan, Gainsari , Dumariaganj, Itwa and Shoharatganj. Besides, there are 45 candidates who possess properties worth more than a crore.