Will Gandhis have the last laugh?

Arun Chaubey

As many as 1.59 crore electorate will cast their votes in Phase V of the UP elections to decide the fate of about 650 candidates including the leader of opposition in state assembly Lalji Tandon, CLP leader Pramod Tiwari, BSP legislature party leader Swami Prasad Maurya and Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiyya. Besides, the phase also holds significance as 57 constituencies spread across nine districts of Lucknow, Hardoi, Pratapgarh, Sultanpur, Rai Bareli, Unnao, Fatehpur, Chitrakoot and Banda have serveral seats which come under the Lok Sabha seats represented by former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi. For the Congress party this phase has a special significance, as Priyanka Vadra Gandhi has to take personal charge of Rae Bareli and Sultanpur districts which have 15 assembly seats. Although Congress could win only 4 seats, and was second at 7 places in 2002, Rahul Gandhi’s arrival has enlivened the faction-ridden state organisation after 17 years. If we look at Congress strongholds the picture is not very rosy. Of the 8 seats in Sultanpur, the party presently has only three seats while the rest of five seats were shared by SP and BSP which have two each and BJP has one. Similarly, of the 7 seats in Rae Bareli, the party could win only one seat, while SP had won three, BSP two and BJP one. Interestingly, Akhilesh Singh who had won the Rae Bareli seat has now left the party. He is known to have a good clout among electorate in the district, therefore it would be difficult for the Congress to retain this seat. Since the Congress had given a tough fight to the BJP in the Mayoral polls in Lucknow, Union Minister Akhilesh Das, who had also been Mayor here, is canvassing hard to bring laurels to the party. The party thinks that the BJP has lost ground due to the BSP and ruling the SP, therefore it can fill the gap up in Lucknow. While in the rest of the districts also the party had failed to perform except Rampur Khas seat where its senior state leader Pramod Tiwari has been elected for the last serveral tenures. However, the BJP camp is agog with positive assessments coming through exit polls. It is hopeful of retaining its 2002 seats and of winning those seats where it was runners up. Besides, the party also feels optimistic due to its successful performance in the municipal and Mayoral elections. It had won 16 seats, and was runners up at 14 places in the 2002 assembly polls while facing the anti-incumbency factor. Now, the situation has taken a U-turn after its successful performance in the recently held two state elections of Punjab and Uttaranchal. The BJP has targetted the degrading law and order situation in the state to corner the Mulayam Singh government, besides highlighting the rising prices of essential commodities to put the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre in the dock. Besides, the party has been able to persuade Uma Bharati to withdraw all her candidates and under the leadership of Rajnath Singh it has again tried to whip-up the Ayodhya issue to polarise Hindu votes. The strategy has positive indications as its Brahmin leaders including state party chief Kesrinath Tripathi, Kalraj Mishra and Murali Manohar Joshi have campaigned hard to retain the minus-Yadav OBC vote bank citing the honest and strong image of Kalyan Singh. BJP’s alliance with Apna Dal and JD-U is also likley to add to the polarisation of the caste combination on which it thrived in the past. However, against all odds the Samajwadi Party is fighting a feverish battle without entering into any alliance. Of the 57 seats, the party had won 14 seats, and was runners up on 20 seats in 2002. The Yadav-Muslim alliance which had so far been intact in favour of SP seems to be cracking. It appears to have affected the SP leadership and the outcome can be witnessed by Azam Khan’s reaction who used foul language to criticise Rahul Gandhi. The SP had made a dent in Dalit votes in 2002, as it won four seats out of the 13 reserved constituencies from these 57 seats. However, the repetition of the same performance appears remote for the SP, which hopes to retain the seats it had won in 2002. But the BSP appears to be the most confident while facing Phase V polls. It had won maximum 19 seats, and was runner up at 12 places in 2002. It is interesting to note that the districts undergoing polls in the Phase V Dalit population comprise 25 to 36 per cent (Hardoi-36% and Rae Bareli 34%), barring Lucknow (16%). While Brahmins consist of 7 to 14 per cent (Sultanpur-14%) and Muslims also comprise 6 to 13 per cent-- Lucknow 23%. The BSP which had won majority of seats in the districts of Banda and Chitrakoot can not be written off even in Lucknow, because it has been able to increase its vote percentage in the last three polls. Besides, the BSP’s poll plank of Sarva Samaj seems to add to its tally of seats in Phase V. Surprisingly, Independents had won 4 seats including Kunda which Raja Bhaiyya had won and Mohanlalganj which former BSP leader R K Chaudhary won in 2002. Besides, they have also given a tough fight on several other seats. Due to defections and denial of tickets to many aspirants in all the parties, several Independent candidates would again have a winning edge on a few seats. Like other phases, Phase V too is witnessing as many as 115 candidates who have pending criminal cases against them, stated the UP Election Watch, an NGO. In Phase III and IV, SP had dominated the list of tained candidates, but BSP leads in this phase with 26 candidates, follwed by SP 21, BJP and Congress with 12 and 7 respectively, said the UPEW, adding that the Apna Dal candidate from Kunda has 45 cases pending against him. Interestingly, 61 candidates have declared their assets to be worth more than Rs 1 crore. The richest one is a Congress candidates from Lucknow East, but he does not have a PAN card. Among the 61 crorepatis, 18 belong to SP, 14 to Congress, 13 to BSP and 8 to BJP, informed the UPEW. Although the political churning is intensifying with the passage of every phase of election, this phase holds special significance as far as Gandhi family’s charisma is concerned. The party’s future strategy hinges on its performance which would decide the course of action for Rahul Gandhi who has geared up to play long political innings. The optimistic BJP and roaring BSP appear to have positive factors, but to decimate the ruling SP would not be so easy.