The year that was: World in 2007

Shafey Danish and Sharique N Siddique

The waning days of these winter months are once again signalling that the year is drawing to a close, a new year is waiting on just the other side of the calendar, and all so suddenly it is again time to take stock. The year 2007 was a year of continuities rather than sudden changes. In journalistic jargon, there were developments and updates, but no major breaking news. The first conclusion that is forced upon us, after looking at the totality of world events, is that we are moving away from the unipolar world. The US has lost power and international prestige throughout this year, though all said and done it continues to weild the maximum power and influence that a country can in world affairs. The two other non political major developments were the Subprime crisis that rocked the financial world, and the developments in the international fight against global warming. These two, at least in our opinion, by far dwarf all the political developments that have taken place this year. More detailed treatment of the issues would be found under the respective heads of Business and Sci-Tech. Here we will confine ourselves with enumerating and (just a bit) analysing the political developments. Politically, the Middle East remained the major theatre of political action. Both Iran and Iraq – and America’s dealings with them – ensured that they remained perennially in the news. Late in the year developments in Pakistan and Myanmar hogged the headlines. Russia, too albeit more subtly, did enough to remain permanently on the radar of news writers. Europe saw a change at the helm of two major countries, Britain and France. Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair, who left office so late that his colleagues may have started thinking about taking him out of Downing Street kicking and screaming. Across the channel Nicholas Sarkozy succeeded Jacques Chirac to France’s Presidency. In Australia too power changed hands, from those of John Howard to Kevin Rudd. Let us take a more detailed look at the developments mentioned above. Middle East: Crisis continues Palestine-Israel As far as long term solution to the problems of the region is concerned, there was little progress, or even change. In the Palestinian conflict, the impression that the US is unable to force Israel to make major concessions was confirmed as the Annapolis conference hosted by the US, ostensibly held to chalk out a roadmap to Middle East peace, ended in little progress. Earlier during the year both the US and Israel had expressed their strong reservations to the Unity Government that had come into existence after the Makkah accord between Fatah and Hamas. Both factions had been locked in a power struggle trying to gain an upper hand in the government. With European powers and the US refusing to support Hamas, this struggle was exacerbated, as it prodded Fatah into confronting Hamas rather than getting into a power sharing arrangement. Hamas, after prolonged isolation took the extreme step of capturing Gaza forcibly. The West Bank was taken over by Fatah forces. This after bloody battles fought between the two factions in the streets of Palestine had turned into a full blown civil war. The result has been a division of Palestine into Hamas controlled Gaza and Fatah controlled West Bank. While West Bank under the Presidency of Mahmoud Abbas is now scheduled to get over $7 bn in aid, Gaza is under invasion by the Israeli forces. One cannot but look with misgivings at these developments as they do not seem designed for achieving long term peace in the region. President Bush is scheduled to visit the region next year, in an effort to take matters up from where they were left at the Annapolis conference. Iraq In neighbouring Iraq, wounds of 4 years of occupation continued to fester. The US went for a troop buildup, a ‘surge,’ to counter the lawlessness of the areas under its control. More than 20,000 extra troops were put into Iraq to counter the runaway insurgency. Things did quieten down after the surge, but it was not clear whether it was because of the surge, or as reports alleged, there was nobody left to kill. Neighbourhoods in Shia locality did not have any more Sunnis left and vice versa. In any case the violence did not actually come to an end, but merely decreased. Problems were compounded when Blackwater, a private security firm hired to for diplomatic security, killed 17 civilians in September. This was not the first time when Blackwater had been accused of indiscriminate killing. According to a US State Department report, it had been involved in 195 cases of violence since 2005. Similar allegations had also been made about other firms security firms. US has dragged its feet in prosecuting offenders, letting them of at most with giving compensation. All this has only damaged the US image in the country, with all sides, including Nouri al Maliki’s government asking for a quick withdrawal of the US troops. A demand which is made by the Democrats too, who control both the Congress and the Senate. But it seems unlikely that George W Bush would allow a major cutback in troop strength, and the Democrats seem unable to force him. Meanwhile, UK is slowly pulling out its troops after Gordon Brown became the Prime Minister. In December UK handed over control of Basra to the Iraqi security forces even though a total pull out has not happened yet. The end of the occupation, when it comes, may well see a trifurcation, or a bifurcation of Iraq. The Kurdish area of northern Iraq has already started behaving independently. It signed some oil deals with Indian companies without any reference to the Iraqi government. The Iraqi government has responded angrily and has declared that the deal null and void but it is no position to force the issue. The US would also not come to its aid as it sees opportunities for its oil companies in the oil rich region. The northern area is also under threat from Turkey which has been attacking it alleging that seperatist Kurdish rebels are based there. Iran 2007 was a remarkably good year for Iran. 2007 was a long story of US trying to put the heat on Iran and Iran willy nilly managing to keep sanctions at bay. But with the publication of the US intelligence report certifying that it had stopped its nuclear program in 2003, one may say it went one up on the US in this tussle. The intelligence report which must have been shown to the government officials including Bush before it was declassified, raises many questions. Did the Bush administration actually give the go ahead for the reports release, and if so why. Did it actually think that bombing Iran ‘was one bridge too far?’ as the Time magazine alleged? If that is so, then perhaps this would be another theatre where the US would have lost. One important development in this respect is the labelling of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization. Now what was the US thinking when it did that? The very fact that the US is consulting Iran, inspite of its hostility to the country, is indicative of how badly it needs Iran to stabilise Iraq. The move would make some sense were it considering military action against the country. But it is not, as the declassification of the US intelligence estimate indicates. That is why the action seems like an enormous miscalculation. South America: Leftward tilt South America has come a long way from the days when it was considered to be America’s backyard, where American companies ran huge plantations and managed its natural resources but this is a process that went on quietly, very quietly, this year. Hugo Chavez, who in any case would lambast the US given half a chance, was the only major figure making belligerent noises. He hobnobbed with Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, commiserated with Fidel Castro and continued to threaten America. Apart from these headlines grabbing moves, (he hosts a show called Alo Presidente) he also nationalized Venezuela’s power and telecommunication companies indicating quite clearly that the nation was moving towards socialism. Near the end of the year he lost a referendum that would have allowed him to contest elections indefinitely. It would have also made Venezuela a more socialistic country. In the neighbouring Argentina, in keeping with a long tradition of women leaders, Christina Fernandez the former first lady took over from her husband Nestor Kirchner. But perhaps the country that is set to make the biggest long term impact is Brazil, one of the fastest developing nations of the world today and a member of the BRIC block. Its position was boosted this year with the discovery of huge oil reserves off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Brazil expects the find to take it to the big league of world oil, at par with Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Brazil which is also a part of the IBSA forum – a trilateral grouping of Brazil, India and South Africa – signed six agreements with the other two nations that can see trade between them touching $10 bn in the next few years. While in Cuba, the ailing President Fidel Castro gave a statement that he did not wish to cling to power, signaling an end to an era . Russia rising If this year belonged to any country, it has to be Russia. This was the year when Russia, from being a country kept on the big table to make up the numbers, suddenly emerged as a confident player on the global stage. The disagreements about the Iraq war had already soured relations with the West. Differing stands on Iran and America’s positioning a part of its missile defence shield in Europe completed the breach. The three big western powers, France Britain and US have all concerted their efforts to impose tougher sanctions on Iran, which they believed was working to build a nuclear bomb, or at least trying to master the technology. Bush went on record to say that if people were interested in preventing a WW III they should be interested in preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons. Well, Putin in that case did not really seem concerned about WW III, as Russia carried on supporting Iran to the point that he even went on a state visit. The relationship between Iran goes beyond mere symbolism though. Russia signed a contract to sell Tor M1 advanced missile defense systems to Iran in January this year. It also sold fighter plane engines and, near the end of the year, uranium for its Bushehr plant. Russia has continued to block US efforts to impose harsher sanctions on Iran and this attitude is not likely to change in the near future, especially since Iran has emerged as one of the largest markets for armaments. This year also saw Russia`s growing penchant for using its energy resources as a weapon. Russia not only decreased its dependence on the European market by signing deals with China, it also threatened erstwhile Soviet block nations, that are now considered to be under US influence, with cutting off gas supply. Russia also consolidated its hold on Central Asia by entering into a pact with Kazakhastan and Turkmenistan to route their gas supplies through Russian delivery system. All of these victories were won at the expense of the West. Matters came to a head over US’ plan to install missiles in Eastern Europe. Russian countered by threatening to aim its missiles once more at European targets. Russia also started, or restarted rather, global bomber patrols which it had suspended after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The end of this year saw Russia withdraw from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, a key Cold War treaty, which limits conventional forces in Europe. Russia says European countries did not keep their part of the bargain, hence it was not obliged to keep its part. Now whether these are genuine concerns or just oil money having its effect, is anybody’s guess. One thing is clear though, Russia has emerged as a clear challenger to US hegemony. President Vladmir Putin nominated Dmitry Medvedev as his chosen successor, which virtually ensures his succession, and has himself shown an inclination to take up the premiership of the country. He had earlier refused to amend the constitution to give himself another term as the President, but allowed amendments to shift certain powers from the President to the Prime Minister. Now with Putin scheduled to become the Premier, his hold on is bound to continue. Turkey: Islamists in Istanbul While we are talking about Russia, let us cast a glance at its next door neighbour Turkey. The country is experiencing changes that can have far reaching implications. The AK party, which has been in power for the last five years called elections this year when it faced opposition to its Presidential candidate Abdullah Gul, because Mr Gul’s wife wears a headscarf. The Turkish army, which plays an uncommonly large role in Turkey’s politics and has booted out governments before, threatened to intervene. The party called for fresh polls to win a fresh mandate, and won it hands down. Mr Abdullah Gul took over as Turkey’s President. The government has been careful to portray a strictly secular image. Alcohol flowed freely in the party thrown to celebrate the Presidency win and the headscarfed wives of the President and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not attend. But it seems likely that the new year would see the strict headscarf ban in public places revoked. The AK party has also taken steps to curtail the army’s influence. Another and a more immediate crisis in which Turkey has been involved, which is still unfolding, is its war with the separatist Kurdish militants. Turkey has been under attack by Kurdish militants who are demanding a separate homeland. With the establishment of an almost autonomous Kurdish region in the Northern part of Iraq, an area that borders Turkey, these attacks have grown in boldness. Turkey took steps to authorize a cross border operation to attack Kurdish rebels and started operations in December. If Turkey decides to launch a full scale invasion into Iraq, it would further deteriorate the already fragile situation in the region. North Korea -South Korea: Building bridges Relations between the two Korean neighbours visibly improved in 2007 as North Korea signalled its willingness to suspend its nuclear work. February saw a start of trade talks and a commitment of aid to North Korea . Later in the year Roh Moo-Hyun, south korea’s President capped this bonhomie building by visiting North Korea in October. The two sides are now working to resume rail links. If the current confidence building atmosphere continues then it would be a historic development between the two nations All this is historic considering that the two nations have been as much uneasy with each other as India and Pakistan has been in the subcontinent. Africa: Painful Transitions In considering Africa, the very first country that one needs to look at is Somalia, it is there that one looks for an update of last year US backed invasion. Nigeria is the other important country, but mainly for non political reasons. Somalia Islamic courts, which had virtually taken over the whole of Somalia, were bombed out of power by the Ethiopian army backed by the US air force. The government that has come to power after that has been labouring to bring some semblance of governance to Somalia. As yet it is still battling the Islamic militias and its control is at best tenuous. Nigeria Nigeria saw a change in its Presidency with Umaru Yar Adua taking over as the new President. Nigeria has suddenly become flush with oil money and is facing political instability. The country faces rampant corruption. Nigeria is Africa`s most populous country and the largest producer of oil. It also has the second largest economy in the continent second only to South Africa. With the recent discovery of uranium, by an Indian firm, the country is heeded towards becoming more important for the world. World at Africa’s feet» South Asia: A region in turmoil The second half of 2007 was dominated by events that took place in South Asia. First, it was the crisis in Myanmar, then came the imposition of Emergency in Pakistan. All this while Sri Lanka kept up a steady stream of news supply of men killed and wounded in its war with LTTE and Bangladesh postponed elections that could see an end of Emergency rule. Pakistan In a significant departure from the legacy of past Pakistani dictators, President Pervez Musharraf stepped down as army Chief and took oath as a civilian President. The transition may not have been as smooth as he hoped, but it was smooth enough for Musharraf’s biggest ally, the US, to stand by him, and for other countries, like its neighbour India, to look at the wily dictator with grudging acceptance. Signs of Musharraf’s weakness had been gathering throughout the year. The nation had erupted in protest when he had tried to sack the popular Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. The chief Justice was eventually reinstated. Musharraf’s detractors had tasted blood and opposition was sustained and severe when in November he imposed Emergency rule. Musharraf said he did this to counter the ‘interference’ of the Judiciary and to prevent the nation from growing militancy. But the word on the street however was that he had got wind of the Supreme Court decision to rule against him in an ongoing trial on the legitimacy of his presidency. The emergency had been imposed to pre-empt that verdict. But there was some truth in Musharraf’s contention. Pakistan has seen sustained militant activity this year, by all accounts the most severe in recent history. The Lal Masjid incident, in which armed militants had taken over a mosque, was the most dramatic instance. The operation to take back the mosque left around 100 people dead, mostly girl students studying in an adjunct seminary. Later Benazir Bhutto’s return to Paksitan was marked by a blast which left 136 dead and more than 250 injured. Pakistan army has seen repeated attacks by the militants. The end of the year would see the army still trying to bring peace to the Swat valley where it had been battling pro Taliban militants. One strongly believed, after Sharif was banned for life from contesting elections, that Benazir Bhutto was going to come to power after the January elections. Everything seemed to be biased in her favour. Not only was she allowed into Pakistan, even as Sharif was unceremoniously deported back to Saudi Arabia, the government quashed all cases against her. It even brought in an amendment that would have allowed the two time Prime Minister, Benazir to hold office for the third time. She seemed to have been selected by destiny itself to lead Pakistan. And then on the 27th of December it all went horribly wrong. Benazir Bhutto was departing after addressing a rally at Liaqat Bagh. The crowd was cheering. While she, standing out of the sunroof, was waving at them, when the scene was rocked by a terrific bomb blast. Benazir was critically injured, and by the time she was rushed to the hospital she was already dead. Pakistan lost one of its tallest leaders. The violence of the act sent shock waves thorough out the world. Condemnations poured in and the nation went into convolutions of violence. How exactly was she killed, is still shrouded in mystery. Initially it was thought that she died of wounds inflicted by the blast, probably by hitting her head against the sunroof. But now eyewitness, including her spokeswoman, Sherry Rehman claim that they saw bullet wound on her head. If this proves to be correct, it would beg the questions as to why the Pakistani government was trying to cover up. For it seems unlikely that Musharraf’s regime could have been involved in it, as he loses out the most by her removal from the scene. Full Coverage: Benazir Assassinated» A word now for the new Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani. He took over as Army Chief on November 28. Known as a Musharraf loyalist, he seems to be the sort of man who would not meddle in politics. That at least is what the pundits say. But then Pakistan has a history of loyalists turning against their masters, Musharraf himself being an example. So this ‘professional soldier’ would be closely watched in the next year. Immediately after his swearing in, President Musharraf declared that the state of Emergency would end on December 16, which eventually ended a day earlier on December 15. After much dilly-dallying he finally declared January 8 as the final date for general elections. Both Nawaz and the late Benazir had been allowed to come back to the country, after prolonged periods of exile. Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan after 8 years after Saudi Arabia stuck a deal between him and Musharraf. US also played a major role in putting through not only the deal but also ensuring that his return sends pro-democratic signals all across the world. However the biggest gain seems to be the pro democracy movement that shook Pakistan. The people of Pakistan have found a new confidence in taking on the might of political rulers. The outgoing year would also go down as one of the rare years in Pakistan`s history when its pet obsessions, India and Kashmir, appeared to have taken a backseat because of the domestic political turmoil. Myanmar For the first time in the history of Myanmar monks stepped out of the monasteries to protest against the steep fuel price hike. As protests ballooned and lakhs came out on the streets to protest, the military Junta hit back with a crack down that left many dead. The crackdown drew widespread international condemnation. The association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) even considered suspending the country. The world was one in condemning the Junta, with India and China being the lone exceptions. Both these countries have substantial stake in being on good terms with the country both for its geo strategic location and its natural resources. One positive development of the crisis however has been a restart of stalled negotiations with Aung San Suu Kyi. It would not be surprising if the year to come sees a final solution to the problems of this troubled country. Sri Lanka A solution to the over two-decade-old ethnic strife continued to elude Sri Lanka which witnessed a spate of bomb blasts and suicide attacks in the year 2007 while neighbouring India adopted a cautious approach towards the island nation despite calls that it should play a more active role. Suicide bombings, including those carried out by LTTE women cadre, and claymore mine blasts rocked Sri Lanka, which also saw hundreds of deaths, mainly of Tamil Tigers, in fierce clashes with the security forces in the restive north. In a huge blow to the LTTE, its political head and public face S P Thamilselvan was killed in a raid by the Sri Lankan Air Force on a high-profile gathering of Tamil Tigers in the rebel-held northern Kilinochchi in early November. The helplessness and frustration of LTTE Supremo V Prabhkaran was apparent when he blamed India for lack of action to find peace during his recent `Heroes Day` speech from a secret location in Kilinocchi in November. In his speech coinciding with his 53rd birthday, Prabhakaran, the reclusive LTTE chief, had accused India of not realising Sri Lanka`s "aim". The Sri Lankan government claimed that Prabhakaran was injured in a raid by Air Force jets in late November but it was stoutly denied by the Tigers. Bangladesh Bangladesh, another South Asian country in turmoil, saw the imposition of emergency for the obvious reasons of failure of governments. The later part of this year saw forced deportation of former premier Khaleda Zia from Bangladesh. But amidst international pressure, she was allowed to come back to the country only to be arrested on corruption charges in September. The other leading lady of the country’s politics, Sheikh Hasina, met the same fate and is also under arrest for corruption charges. The general elections have been postponed indefinitely and the country is still under emergency. Amidst all these political turbulence, another major tragedy occurred in the country at the end of this year when on the fateful night of November 15, a massive cyclone ‘Sidr’ struck the country, leaving more than 3,000 dead and thousands homeless. Even with aid pouring in from all across the globe, the cyclone had left severe scars on the mind of the affected people who not only lost their relatives but their future also seems to be uncertain. Nepal One of the smallest countries of South Asia, Nepal has been in turmoil for quite sometime now. Though the year 2006 had ended on a positive note when major political parties together with Maoists toppled the rule of King Gyanendra and ended 10 tear old insurgency. The year 2007 started with the hope of a new democratic Nepal on the offing. But by the end of the year it was very clear that this year failed to live up to its expectations. This year can easily be termed as a year of wasted opportunities. The year started with the implementation of a new constitution and then Maoist returning to mainstream politics. Then in another positive turn of events, the house announced that the assembly elections will be held in June. The Maoists have been demanding the end of monarchy and the establishment of a Republican government. After a year long tussle, the political parties, have relented. So the end of the year will bring some cheer in Nepal. Prachanda has agreed to join the government, and seems to have gone so far to the other extreme that he has even asked the LTTE to shun violence. Malaysia The massive rally of ethnic Indian in Malaysia against alleged marginalisation of the community, brought the country suddenly into news for all the wrong reasons. The government, instead of taking corrective actions hit back with the internal security act. Hindraf, the organization of ethnic organization leading the protests came under pressure as Prime Minister Badawi not only gave out tough statements, including one where he charged the community of treason, but also carried out arrests of the activists, including the that of Hindraf chief. In December Malaysia softened its stance under international pressure. The government’s recent soft stand on temple demolition issue – it said temples would not be demolished without thorough check – shows it is attempting to reach out to the Indian community. Goodbyes Some of the major world powers saw a change of leadership this year: Benazir Bhutto the PPP leader was assassinated on the 27th of December, throwing Pakistan into turmoil and political uncertainty. Her son Bilawal has been made the Chairman of the party. But until he comes of age, Asif Zardari would be the de facto head. Britain: Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair, who managed to make a slick, grand exit from 10 Downing Street France: Nicholas Sarkozy defeated Segolene Royal to win the presidentship from of France. He took over from Jacques Chirac who had served as the President for 12 years. Australia: Kevin Rudd won against another long time Prime Minister John Howard. Pakistan: One does not know whether this is a change of guard or not, but General Pervez Musharraf stepped down as Pakistan’s Army Chief and took over as civilian President. Ashfaque Pervez Kiyani is the man who succeeded him as Army Chief. Civilian Musharraf: In pix» Russia: Dmitry Medvedev is likely to take over from Putin, it has not happened formally, but now that Putin has given his stamp of approval there can be no doubt he would be the next President. Putin himself would take over as Premier. Lebanon: Foud Saniora, the ex President of Lebanon resigned leaving behind a political vaccum. Now it seems likely that it will be filled by the consensus candidate, Army Chief Gen. Michel Suleiman. Japan: Shinzo Abe, the PM of Japan resigned amidst corruption charges in September. Yasuo Fukuda, a 71 year old veteran took over the premiership after him.