Battleground Kerala: Poll issues

Ajith Vijay Kumar Battle lines have been clearly drawn between the CPI-M led LDF and the Congress led UDF as Kerala goes to polls. But it’s not often that pollsters in Kerala and exit polls unanimously predict a rout for the CPI-M led Left Democratic Front (LDF). The reasons behind this slide in the fortunes for the ruling party, a party that has one of the strongest cadre bases across the political spectrum not just in the state but even on the national level, is not that hard to find. Divided Left For one, the Left is very unlike “the Left” in Kerala today. The CPI-M leaders always known for toeing the party line and following the instructions from the Politburo are fighting in the open. What necessarily is a personal tiff between Chief Minister VS Achutanandan and state secretary Pinrayi Vijayan has now engulfed the whole party and things took the turn for the worst with the CBI indicting Vijayan in the SNC Lavalin case. The case has come as a rude shock to the “disciplined” party as it has never happened before that a Politburo member has been accused of corruption. The Nava-Kerala march led by Pinarayi Vijayan tried hard to explain to voters that the case is politically motivated but it remains to be seen whether the politically conscious voters of India’s most literate state have bought the argument. Moreover, by getting the Chief Minister to attend the rally’s concluding ceremony in Thriuvanantapuram, Vijayan ensured that the rift widens and more importantly assert that he is still the boss when it comes to getting the word across to comrade Prakash Karat. With the Chief Minister taking the moral high ground on the issue, the party is finding it extremely difficult to assuage the fears in the electorate that it is not falling apart like a house of cards and the Left revolution as envisaged by great comrades AK Gopalan and EMS Namboodiripad is still “working”. However, Achutanandan knows very well that if the Left loses this election, then the hawks in the party will once again start to clamour for his scalp. If grapevine has to be believed then Achutanandan may resign and form a separate political outfit with support from the ever growing number of rebels in the party. If that happens or if something on the lines is being brewed by the VS loyalists then it’s sure that the LDF is heading for a wash out. Moreover, the CPI-M has been squabbling with its partners over seat sharing. With the CPI it had a very open fight, something that threatened the very existence of the LDF, over the Ponani seat – a predominately Muslim majority area. On one hand the CPI wanted to retain the right to fight the seat, while on the other the CPI-M was of the opinion that it should get the opportunity to try and wrest the seat out of the clutches of the LDF. The CPI-M’s point of view was that the only way to win Ponani was to field an independent candidate, who would get the backing of majority of the Muslim factions. And, the result? Allegedly at the behest of the CPI-M, Dr Hussein Randathani, the principal of a college run by the Muslim Educational Society, who had the support of Madani’s PDP announced his candidature on his own from Ponnani. The emergence of Randathani with the support of PDP (has around 50,000 vote base in the constituency) has led to a revolt by the CPI, which has now tactically started to work against the interest of the CPI-M all over the seat, thereby ensuring that there would be a erosion in the Left voter base in the state. The crisis in the LDF deepened further with the CPI-M’s decision to take over the -Kozhikode Lok Sabha seat from the Janata Dal (Secular), its only one in Kerala, represented in the last Lok Sabha by JD(S) state president MP Veerendra Kumar. Although, the CPI-M alternatively offered the newly created Wayanad constituency, for obvious reasons, did not go down well with the JD(S). Taking the battle forward, the JD(S) withdrew its only representative, Transport Minister Mathew T Thomas, from the Kerala Cabinet, and in turn decided to vote against CPI-M candidates in at least four crucial constituencies in north Kerala, where it claims to have substantial support. The numbers Although, the Congress had 32.13% vote share in 2004, it had witnessed a complete rout owing to the united Opposition. This time around the vote share of the Left combine (around 40%) may not necessarily dip substantially but their internal strife and their resolve to ensure the defeat of the other might ensure that they face surprise defeat in many of their erstwhile bastions. Even a slight swing in favour of the Congress led UDF and the cross voting by the constituents of the LDF will ensure that the UDF emerges as a winner in atleast 12-14 seats in the state. The 4.87% vote share (2004) of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) may also help the Congress in isolating the Left combine. Although surveys are predicting that the LDF is holding fort in Kasaragod, Alappuzha, Kollam, Idukki and Attingal constituencies but the fact remains that the LDF is divided and it is also bearing the brunt of anti incumbency, thereby making it extremely difficult for the Left to hold on to its turf. The PDP factor will be crucial in many seats in the Malabar area. The CPI-M would be hoping that it joining hands with Madani will prove beneficial in its quest for Mulsim votes, but the fact remains that it can go either ways. People may just vote out the LDF for having given Madani a stake in national politics –given the concerns about his past. A close fight is predicted in Kannur, Vatakara and Kottayam constituencies, while in others the UDF is expected to emerge victorious. State vs Religion The CPI-M is finding it increasingly difficult to keep together the different religious and caste based vote banks in its fold. It’s no secret that the Church, a very powerful body in Kerala, is up against the Left front for what it calls “undue interference in their educational institutions”, there are also indications that some Muslim sects are renewing their support to the LDF. Major Hindu communities, in the past year, have also gravitated away from the Left. The upper caste Nairs are now “very” against the Left after the verbal duel between the Nair Service Society general secretary Naryana Panickar and the Left. Now they have proclaimed that they will abandon their “equidistance” policy in favour of the UDF. The other important vote bank the Ezhava community, which has been traditionally been with the Left, is also showing indications of aligning with the Congress combine. Madani trouble In Kerala`s bipolar polity, Abdul Nasser Madani`s Peoples Democratic Party is not part of either the LDF or UDF. But, in an irony of sorts, Madani appears to have "hijacked" the initial round of Lok Sabha poll debate. Ever since the CPM forged a link with the PDP through its independent candidate Hussein Randathani from Ponnani in the Muslim heartland of Malappuram, the "right and wrong" of this new found alliance has become a hotly discussed topic in state politics, relegating to the background other national and state-level issues, at least for the opening phase of the campaigning. The result: Madani, who has been keeping a low profile after his acquittal in the Coimbatore blasts case two years back, has once again occupied the centre stage in state politics. Despite the opposition, the CPI-M appears steadfast in its decision to align with Madani as leaders of the party have kept off campaigning for CPI candidates in protest against their "negative" attitude towards them. Meanwhile, Madani, who was once described as an "extremist Muslim fundamentalist" by the Left, has started campaigning openly for CPM candidates. The Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League on the other hand have termed the CPM-PDP alliance as a "dangerous trend". Smiling Congress The Congress list came as a surprise to many because despite Rahul Gandhi’s open assertion on giving more representation to the youth, most of the candidates are old workhorses. The Congress list is also bereft of any political heavyweights from the state. While senior leader and Defence Minister AK Antony opted out of the race well before the polls were announced, Union Minister Vayalar Ravi was recently elected to the Rajya Sabha. Mid-ranking leaders like Mullapally Ramachandran, VM Sudheeran, KPCC President Ramesh Cehnnithala, KPCC Vice-President Thalekunnil Basheer are also not in the electoral fight. The reason behind the reluctance in the Congress camp to fight the Lok Sabha elections appears to be not because of any doubt about the UDF’s winability but appears to be stemming from the fact that most top rung state leaders want to stick to state politics for now as many of them now fancy their chances to be the Chief Minister after the next Assembly elections. However, credit is due for the Congress as, for once, it appears to be united in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls. The notorious “Groups” and the sub groups operating independently within the party have all but vanished and the party is appearing as a united force ready to take on the Left on all fronts. Ummen Chandy and Ramesh Chennithala are, at least in public, acting in unison; aiming for the bigger cause – to ensure the return of the UDF as the preferred political party in the state. Their endeavour got a fillip with old guard Karunakaran returning to their fold after having a personal chat with Sonia Gandhi. The way the UDF is cobbling up alliances with various religious organizations and their united stand will ensure that they give the Left a run for their money in one of their bastions. And, the irony of the situation is that the UDF doesn’t have to hunt for issues to corner the Left. Lavalin case, the bone of contention between Achutanandan and Vijayan, the crumbling LDF, the Congress poll managers are smug with satisfaction that the they don’t have to do anything to dislodge the LDF as it is on self-destruction mode by itself. BJP & the others The BJP is certain about one thing- they have many more miles to go before they win a Lok Sabha seat in the state and they are building up the party brick by brick and would for sure give a serious fight to the established fronts in perhaps the next Assembly elections. Meanwhile, Karunakaran’s son Muralidharan is standing like a lone warrior. He now heads the NCP here and might just cause some heart burns for the UDF by diving votes in some constituencies. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party is also looking to make inroads into the state, made evident by Behenji when she started her poll campaign from Thiruvananthapuram. Her focus is on the Ezhava community, who were socially resurrected by the great social reformer Narayana Guru. With Nella Lohithadasan Nadar as its candidate from the state capital, the BSP is sure to have started on the right note in the state. Incidentally, nowadays, every BSP hoarding has Narayana Guru occupying a proud place along with other social reformers indicative of the things to come. Key constituencies: Thiruvanathapuram P Ramachandran Nair – LDF Shashi Tharoor - UDF
Malappuram E Ahmed – UDF T K Hamsa – LDF N Aravindhan - BJP Ponnani Dr Hussain Randathani - LDF Independent E T Muhammed Basheer - UDF Janachandran Master - BJP Wayanad M I Shanavas UDF M Rahmathulla – LDF K Muraleedharan - NCP Ernakulam Sindhu Joy – LDF K V Thomas - Congress AN Radhakrishnan - BJP