Will Kandhmal cast a shadow over Orissa polls?

Anil Kumar Satapathy Just a couple of month ago it was all well for the ruling BJD in Orissa, which was riding high on its past performance to script yet another spectacular victory. However, the political landscape has changed since 2004, when the BJP-BJD combine scripted its second consecutive win at the state assembly despite the failure at the Centre. Unlike the previous elections, this time the state will witness mainly a three cornered contest. The friends turned foes, BJD and BJP will vie for each other’s blood, while Congress, which is eying to take full advantage of this internal fight is struggling to keep its own house in order. However, more than the political arithmetic, it is some recent issues that might decide the fate of the parties in the state – which will have simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha polls in two phases on April 16 and April 23. Kandhamal The most burning issue in the state now is Kandhamal. The relatively peaceful state was shocked by the communal fights last year that claimed almost 38 lives following the murder of VHP leader Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati and four of his aides at his ashram. The incident suddenly caught up nationwide attention, resulting into the break up of the long standing alliance of BJP and BJD with the latter accusing the former of widening the communal divide in the region. BJD has, inadvertently, witnessed the seething anger in the people of the state over this issue as it failed to control the riots. BJD’s Naveen Patanaik, who got trapped in the whole episode, has tried to rescue himself to some extent by parting ways with BJP, but whether he had achieved his aim would only be clear after the polls. Poll sops Orissa has a history of famines and hunger related deaths. In a state, which is one of the poorest in India with around 3 crore population and about 40 lakh BPL families, providing free sops is one of the easiest ways to the corridors of power. Last year, the outgoing Chief Minister had made provisions for the supply of Rs 2 per kg rice for poorer sections of the state. The scheme, infact, has paid immediate dividends in the state civic polls. The BJD has maintained that it will focus on development and will project its achievements in the last nine years of its rule despite the "step motherly" attitude by the Congress-led Central government” in releasing funds to meet the natural calamities or development of railways in the state and the non revision of royalty on some major minerals. The Congress, which was ruling at the Centre, through advertisements is trying to take the credit for the same on the ground that the UPA government has been releasing subsidy to the tune of Rs 11 per kg of rice and that the BJD government provides only a mere Rs 2 subsidy per kg. Interestingly, both the Congress and the BJP have promised that if voted to power in the Assembly, they would distribute rice at Rs1 per kg to poor people. Besides these prominent political forces, there other regional parties like one newly formed party Samrudha Odishahas, which has promised Rs 3,000 per month to the poorest of poor families; free food, clothing and books for students up to class tenth; LPG connections for newly-wed women; fertilisers at Re 1 per kg for farmers, seeds and insecticides at rebate rates and loan at 3 per cent interest rate. Development Orissa has long been deprived of its share of development. Though being rich in mineral and resources, with a vast coastline, it is yet to see industrialisation. The large rural population migrated in hordes to states like Gujarat and Maharastra in search of jobs. In view of this, the unfinished projects of POSCO, Vedanta alumina, Tata Steel plant and others are bound to figure during the polls, as the parties have to say in absolute terms whether they are for the industrialisation or against it. While a section supports the industrialisation, a vast section of farmers are against it. In Kaling Nagar there was a series of violent clashes to oppose industrialisation. The Rs 50,000 crore POSCO project, which was hailed as the largest ever FDI in India and was supposed to change the face of Orissa, is also in limbo ever since it was proposed. The tribal populaces, which constitute over 22 percent of the total population, are up in the arms against the government. ‘Orissa Adivasi Manch’ - a network of tribal organisations, with a presence in 15 tribal districts has decided to approach all political parties with eight demands to be included in their manifestoes. Their demands include transfer of power in their own hands to decide the best modes for their development, the implementation of Forest Rights Act, settlement of all the land disputes in tribal areas and infrastructure facilities like health services. Six districts of South Orissa – Malkanagiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Kalahandi, Kandhmal and three of Western Orissa – Sundergarh, Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj have a huge tribal population. The JMM and NCP that have campaigned against the POSCO project have strengthened their positions in some pockets. On the contrary, the coastal and south east districts are well developed and the condition of the people of western Orissa - of Kalahandi, Balangir and Koraput (KBK region) – is pitiable. More than 87 per cent of people in the region live below the poverty line. The launch of Kosala Kranti Dal (KKD), a regional party based in Western Orissa, has only added to the woes of other parties. The party has now demanding a separate state comprising ten districts of western Orissa. Naxalism Orissa has long been fighting the Left wing extremism. The Maoists’ influence has increased all these years. According to reports, 15 of the total 30 districts of the state are now under Maoists influence. The acute poverty in these regions has corroborated to the influence of extremists. The development programmes in the past by the state and Central government could not deliver the desired goals. The recent attack on a NALCO site in the Koraput district of the state validates the seriousness of the menace. BJD Vs BJP The break up of BJD-BJP alliance would be a hot issue this time in the elections. BJP would like to strike an emotional cord with the voters by painting itself a “victim of greed”, while BJD has shrewdly parted to come clean in the wake of the Kandhmal riots. The Congress, meanwhile, is romancing with its chance to rule the roost in the state after eight years of long hiatus from power. The BJD-BJP break up would definitely reduce the voting margins – remember the Congress has managed to corner 40.43 per cent votes in 2004 Assembly polls, while the BJD-BJP combine got 49.32 per cent. The BJP has declared that it would make the killing of a senior VHP leader Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati a poll issue in Orissa to garner the anti-Congress vote. The BJP is also trying to convince the voters that the Congress and the BJD had some hidden agenda as evident from the stoic silence of the UPA government to act when the Naveen Patnaik government was reduced to a minority.