The key to Rajasthan fort

Shashank Chouhan Earlier this year in March Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhra Raje sounded the election bugle as the Narmada gushed into the parched districts of Barmer and Jalore. She combined religion, politics and development when she announced that the Narmada was as pious as the Ganges and that the revered river would provide for the irrigation and electricity needs of the region. At that time she had bravely announced that her administration was above caste considerations. Little did she know that two months down the line her state would be divided on blood lines as Gujjars would take to the streets demanding the Scheduled Tribes status. When Rajasthanis vote this winter, there will be many things on their minds- high prices, higher credit cost, internal security, development, and caste considerations of course. Each of these will have the power to sway votes one way or the other and the ruling BJP’s strategy will be to play on its strengths and deflect the weaknesses to Centre’s (Congress led) court. Here is an overview of the issues that are sure to stir a storm in the deserts of Rajasthan and may even breach some impregnable forts. Gujjar Agitation The Gujjars constitute only 5% of the total population of Rajasthan and are under the OBC category. The community has been demanding the status of Scheduled Tribes since decades to avail the benefits being reaped by the Meenas, who constitute about 15% of the population. Not only that, the Jats -a powerful community commanding sway over 30 constituencies- were given the OBC status by the Vajpayee Government and have a powerful lobby in the current administration. The Gujjar community- not having a single IAS officer in state- feels it is at a loss and hence is clamouring for ST status which is being opposed aggressively by the Meenas, who have influence in east and northern Rajasthan. The Raje government did some fine rope walk when it announced a special provision for the Gujjars and threw the reservation ball in Centre’s court. This saved it from the wrath of Meenas, but disillusioned some Gujjar leaders. So while their leader Kiroli Singh Bhainsla is backing BJP, there is a sizeable chunk that feels cheated. One is reminded here that Vasundhra Raje had promised ST status to Gujjars in 2003 Assembly polls and had won thumping majority in Gujjar dominated areas like Jhalrapatan. Internal Feuds Although it is not an issue for the general voter, in-fighting spoils a party’s image and may also lead to axing of candidates who are popular amongst electorate. BJP is busy projecting Vasundhra Raje as its national leader- Modi style- while the state unit is in tatters due to her ‘autocratic style’. Having announced 182 candidates so far, the BJP has denied nominations to senior party leaders like Hari Shanker Bhabra, Deputy Chief Minister in the Shekhawat government, Ramnarain Vishnoi, Deputy Speaker of the State Assembly and ministers LN Dave and Prabhu Lal Saini, among others. Party leader Vishwendra Singh`s decision to join the Congress may also harm the BJP in over 20 constituencies, especially in Bharatpur, Dholpur and Karauli districts. He alleged selling of election tickets a la Alva and had to pay the price. Development Raje has relentlessly claimed that she has pushed Rajasthan out of the BIMARU category of states. She has attracted a lot of investment for her state and has capitalized on SEZ model for Rajasthan. From gender budgeting to announcements of Bhamashah Yojana, aimed at benefiting BPL families to enhancing quota for women in Panchayat Raj and local bodies, Ms Raje has not left any stone unturned to mesmerise the woman votebank. But Congress has dismissed the claims as rhetoric. While the literacy rate has declined to 60.41, infant mortality rate risen to 83, and per capita income is as low as Rs 15,219 per annum, Sibbal told a press conference recently. Under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Yojna (NREGY), the Raje government violated the norms laid down by the Supreme Court to pay minimum wages of Rs 73 per person, paying just Rs 51, he said. On the corruption front the BJP government had broken all records by encouraging traders and big business houses by blessing them with land, Sibal alleged, adding that huge funds meant for various development programmes were misappropriated by the government authorities. Terror and Price Rise Since almost every state going to polls has the main national political parties fighting for space, national issues such as terror and inflation are bound to be used by the BJP against Congress. The Jaipur blasts killed about 50 and the police are still clueless about the culprits. This has provided ammo to the Congress, but Raje has put the blame on Centre, saying intelligence inputs were not provided in time. Inflation has now shrunk to single digit, but the price of fuel remains high- something that will be a major set back for Congress. Other Issues While inflation is a major economic issue, the Congress is sure to ask the state’s farmers to vote in its favour. But the 60,000 crore farm debt waiver may actually turn out to be a sore for the GOP of India as most farmers in East Rajasthan had already paid off their debts when Chidambaram made the grand gesture. The irrigation problem in some parts of Rajasthan had lead to violent struggles, but the Govt is hoping that the waters of Narmada will solve this problem. More than 140 people had died and around 300 persons were injured due to a major stampede in Chamunda Devi temple in Jodhpur in September. Management of the area was found wanting and the temple-hopping, yagna-performing Vasundhra Raje was left with egg on her face. This and various local issues including anti-incumbency - Rajasthan has not elected the same party for any successive term since the 70’s- are sure to have an impact on election outcome. But the sand is of a deceitful nature. It shifts fast and makes new dunes in the vast expanses of Rajasthan. Many being just mirage of assuredness. Which party will hold the grains of public trust, only the sands of time will tell.