Will buoyant BJP scuttle BSP journey?

Arun Chaubey The eastern part of Uttar Pradesh being covered in the last two phases of polls has 111 seats of which Phase VI would witness elections on 52 seats. The 18 districts of Poorvanchal hold great significance for political parties, as the electorate here would finally decide as to who would form the next government in the biggest state of the nation. The 52 constituencies of Phase VI spread across nine districts of Varanasi, Chandauli, Sonebhadra, Mirzapur, Sant Ravidas Nagar (Bhadohi), Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Allahabad and Kaushambi have been affected by problems like Japanese Encephalities, but these have failed to become issues. Political parties have resorted to strengthening of their caste combination, besides relying on muscle power to win on majority of the seats. If we look into the past, we see that till 1989, the Congress had dominated in the districts of Poorvanchal. With the Ram Mandir movement, BJP came to the forefront and it managed to woo the traditional voters of the Congress. But all this changed by 2002, and the electorate there voted for the Samajwadi Party. Of the 111 seats, SP presently has 41 seats, followed by BSP’s 32, BJP’s 21 and the rest divided among Independents and small parties. However, the situation has taken a u-turn since 2002. The ruling SP-led government has failed to retain the faith of the people it had when it came to power. Although the SP had won the maximum of 20 seats, and was second at 19 seats in 2002 polls, it is facing an uphill task to retain its seats. The developments like the Mau riots in 2005, and the killing of BJP MLA Krishnanand Rai has added to the unpopularity of the government, besides its failure to control the declining law and order situation. Although the districts undergoing polls have a large chunk of OBCs and Muslim voters, the propaganda machinery of the opposition has managed to turn the heat on the SP. The once confident Mulayam Singh Yadav has been seen waning in confidence because a few of his trusted friends like Beni Prasad Verma have left him and this appears to have not gone too well in the minds of people. The party which won 40 Lok Sabha seats failed to utilise this number while other parties with less seats played a crucial role at the Centre. Amidst this scenario, the battle for SP is too difficult to retain even its earlier tally in this phase. While the BJP under the fresh and astute leadership of Rajnath Singh appears confident. The party which got immense support during the Ram Mandir movement has once again adopted its Hindu hardlime image under the leadership of Kalyan Singh. The Party, which won 11 seats and was runners up at the same in 2002, has successfully raised the issues like the Mau riots and Japanese Encephalitis to expose the state government’s apathy, besides its failure on several other fronts. The BJP, which in 2002 had to bite the dust on several seats due to the Kurmi-dominated party Apna Dal (AD) and Kalyan Singh’s Rashtryia Kranti Party, appears to have done its required mathematics in advance. The pre-poll BJP-AD-JD(U) alliance under the leadership of Kalyan Singh seems to have already got an upper hand with crucial Kurmi voters, which comprise about 6% (12% in Sonebhadra) in all the 9 districts. Besides, it is hopeful of wooing its traditional votes of Forward Castes and OBCs. The BJP has allocated 37 and 15 seats to AD and JD(U) respectively. In 2002, the AD had won three seats of Gangapur, Nawabganj and Allahabad West, while in Raigarh, Soraon and Sirathu its candidates got more than 20,000 votes giving a tough fight to the BJP. The AD, which presently has no winning candidates of 2002 with it, is contesting on 10 seats in this phase, besides having a friendly fight at Kolsla in Varanasi. The AD president, Dr Sone Lal Patel, is fighting from Kolsla and Soraon seats. His wife is campaigning hard in Soraon, while in Kolsala- Kurmi-Bhumihar dominated seat, Patel is again trying his luck. He had contested from Kolsla in 2002, but could not win and this time too he is in for a friendly fight from his alliance partner BJP. Its the pre-poll alliance of BJP that has much at stake, as the success in this phase would decide its performance for the 59 seats of the last phase. The exit poll results, if we believe, have so far given favourable twist for the party, the real battle it would face against the silent and emerging BSP. Proving all her opponents wrong, BSP supremo Mayawati once again is likely to emerge stronger. The BSP, which won 15 seats and was runners up at about the same places in 2002, is likely to surprise others with the results in Phase VI polls. The Dalit icon has extended her vision beyond Dalits and has allocated 86 seats to Brahmins, besides giving representation to other Forward Castes, Muslims, OBCs and Dalits. If we consider the caste combination of the 9 districts, barring Varanasi (13%) Dalits comprise 20 to 25% (Sonebhadra 40%, Kaushambi 32%); Muslims 8 to 13% (Sonebhadra 5%, Kaushambi 18%); Brahmins 7 to 12% (Mirzapur 14%). Since caste reality seems to be favaourable for the BSP, which vociferously backs the cause of all the sections of society, it is likley to emerge as the most potent force in this phase by edging out SP. Amidst this labyrinth, the Congress party which once appeared to have forgotten the requisite political formula has once again regained its confidence under the aggressive leadership of Sonia Gandhi and youth face of Rahul Gandhi. The party had won only from Pratappur constituency in Allahabad, and was runners up at two seats in 2002. However, it suprised in the 2004 general elections when its candidate from Varanasi Dr Rajesh Mishra managed to win the seat. Similarly, the party is prepared enough to spring surprises at several places. The number of seats cannot be predicted, but it is certainly giving a tough fight on a few seats in the district of Varanasi, Allahabad and Mirzapur. While the political parties are busy wooing the electorate, the Election Commission is having a tough time in ensuring peaceful polls in the Naxal-affected districts of Chandauli, Mirzapur and Sonebhadra. It has deployed 645 companies of Central paramilitary forces, along with PAC jawans at 500 polling centres in the three districts. Besides, for the first time in the history UP, Army commandos have been deployed in the poll process. The EC has also directed the state government to shift incarcerated criminals and politicians to other jails to prevent politicians with criminal antecedents and gangsters from trying to influence the polls. It may be noted that as many as 138 out of 785 candidates in the sixth phase have criminal cases pending against them, stated the UP Election Watch, an NGO, in its report. The ruling SP has fielded maximum number of 19 candidates having criminal antecedents, followed by BSP with 16. While twelve of 41 candidates fielded by BJP have such records, and 14 of 49 candidates of Congress have similar background, the UPEW said. Interestingly, Soraon constituency in Allahabad has the dubious distinction of having all 11 candidates, including the AD chief, with criminal cases pending against them. Among the individual candidates with criminal backgrounds, BSP`s Suhsil Kumar from Dhanapur seats in Chandauli district tops the list with 25 cases registered against him that include eight cases of murder, informed the UPEW. In this phase, about 1.63 crore of the electorate including 75.20 lakh women would decide the fate of 785 candidates in the fray. Soraon in Allahabad has the maximum 25 candidates, while Meja constituency in the same district has the lowest 9 candidates only. Besides the assembly seats, Mirzapur and Robertsganj Lok Sabha seats will also undergo by-elections following the cancellation of the membership of Naresh Kushwaha and Lalchand Kol (both BSP MPs) due to their involvement in the cash-for-querry scam.