Zee Research Group/ Delhi
The dream run for gold has turned sour. But will the climb down south mean the end of the golden era or consumers will soon have the choice to buy their favorite metal at a price they would deem to be realistic? Is 24K the new price line?
At the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold prices crashed to a two year lows and it is currently trading below Rs 26,000 per 10 grams. The panic in market over gold prices is driven by global news. In the international market too, gold prices tumbled to their lowest level in more than two years and it has touched levels of 1325 dollars per ounce.
But going ahead what is the price level the market can afford?
Vibhu Ratandhara, Assistant vice-president, Bonanza Commodity Limited, asserted, “I am bearish on gold and still there is downside left to it. Domestic prices could fall to levels of Rs 24,000 or 23,500 levels in the short to medium term. However, levels like 22k are difficult to witness owing to events like of today where Thailand and Dubai bought gold in physical form. Such events would provide support to the gold prices.”
In sync with Ratandhara, Manoj Kumar Jain, President, Commodity & Forex Business at India Nivesh Commodities said, “We have seen a continuous rally of a decade from 2001-02 to 2010-11 when gold touched all time high levels of 1900 dollar in September 2011. Actually this is a cycle and now we have entered the bear phase. It can go to levels of Rs 23, 800 in the near term and if this level doesn’t hold then it could further fall to Rs 22,500 levels. If Cyprus and other euro nations start selling gold then this bear phase would continue for nearly three years.”
However, Dharmesh Bhatia, Associate vice-president research at Kotak Commodity Services argued, “I am not so bearish about the gold prices. Actually the prices in international markets have fallen more sharply in comparison to the domestic markets. In the next three months, a pullback rally can be seen with some consolidation and the range could be anywhere between Rs 25,000 – 27,000 per 10 grams. People have already started to accumulate gold at lower levels.”
As far as advice to investors is concerned, Ratandhara at Bonanza Commodity opined, “Traders or speculators are not advised to go long at current levels. However, consumers can start buying around 24000 levels in a staggered manner.”