If Baitullah Mehsud is dead, what lies ahead?

As soon as the news of Baitullah Mehsud’s death broke, the immediate question that cropped up in my mind was – what does it mean for the region?

Kamna Arora

As soon as the news of Pakistan Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud’s death broke, the immediate question that cropped up in my mind was – what does it mean for the region? If the news is to be believed, or Pakistani ministers to be trusted upon, Mehsud was killed by US drones in southern Waziristan on August 05. In fact, some sources even claim that Mehsud`s funeral had already taken place when the news of his death reached the media across the world on August 07. While Pakistan Taliban has claimed that its leader Mehsud is alive, the confusion over the fate of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief, who was once dubbed by TIME as "an icon of global jihad”, continues. In September 2007, a UN report had blamed Mehsud for around 80 percent of the suicide bombings in Afghanistan. It was then that he came in the spotlight on the ‘stage of terror’ with al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri. Besides participating in the anti-Soviet Afghan jihad, Mehsud had in the past also assisted the Afghan Taliban in their fight against the Northern Alliance. The uneducated Pashtun tribesman from a modest clan emerged on the terror scene when he occupied the seat vacated by Nek Muhammad Wazir, a Pashtun military leader killed in a missile attack in June 2004. Mehsud then became the second-in-command of one-legged militant, Abdullah Mehsud. Interestingly, Abdullah had returned to Waziristan after being freed from the US prison in Guantanamo Bay as ‘innocent’. Abdullah died in July 2007 when he detonated a grenade killing himself during a shootout with Pakistani military. It was then that Mehsud grabbed a commanding position in South Waziristan. On December 14, 2007, TTP was born. Taliban shura, a 40-member consultative council, picked Mehsud to lead 13 factions. Albeit Mehsud had always sworn allegiance to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar, the latter had sacked the former as he focused more on fighting the Pakistan military than Western allied forces in Afghanistan. In February 2005, a deal was inked between the Pakistani government and Mehsud aimed at bringing peace to violence-stricken South Waziristan. Under this deal, Mehsud promised not to target security posts or enter into Afghanistan for jihad. However, in August 2007, he pulled out of the deal in the wake of the Red Mosque military operation in Islamabad. Reports claim that he actually strengthened himself in the cover of the so-called peace deal. And to understand how strong Mehsud was, one can recall the Pakistani government’s compliance to his demand to set militant prisoners free in exchange for over 250 Pakistani soldiers, whom his fighters seized for two-and-a-half months. As per reports, Mehsud had executed over 100 rival tribal leaders to secure power. Seen as Public Enemy No 1 by Washington as well as Islamabad, the TTP leader had a USD 5 million bounty on his head. He was a major internal security threat to Pakistan. According to reports, he had more than 20,000 fighters with him in South Waziristan – mostly from his Mehsud clan, and some from Lashkar-e-Jhangvi along with Uzbeks and other Central Asian fighters. Moreover, he was responsible for various suicide bombings, incidents of kidnappings, and other audacious offensives in Pakistan. He was suspected of having planned and executed the assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007. Mehsud, however, never admitted to it. More than anything else, Mehsud was a threat to Pakistan’s nuclear assets. The US must have now heaved a sigh of relief. The top militant, who was in his thirties, is likely dead. And moreover, their drones finally hit the right target. But will the TTP chief’s death help Western forces jostling to win their war on terror? In January 2008, the Pakistan Taliban chief told the Doha-based Al Jazeera satellite channel, “Our main aim is to finish Britain and the United States and to crush the pride of the non-Muslims. We pray to God to give us the ability to destroy the White House, New York, and London. Very soon, we will be witnessing jihad`s miracles.” The question that comes to mind is: What does Mehsud’s death mean to the region. According to an independent analyst Mayank Jain, Mehsud’s death will spell no change. In fact, his ideology and aim will be pursued by TTP with greater vigour, Jain, who has produced a number of documentaries on terrorism, told Zeenews.com. In fact, Jain noted that Mehsud’s death will not appease Islamabad because the TTP chief was not an enemy of Pakistan. “It was only Pakistan disinformation that Mehsud was opposed to it. He only targeted those he thought were instruments of US policy. Therefore, he had many sympathisers in Pakistani establishment. For example, Mehsud would have targeted (Pakistan President Asif Ali) Zardari but not Nawaz Sharif.” The head of the independent Centre for Research and Security Studies in Islamabad, Imtiaz Gul, states that Baitullah’s disappearance from the scene would have a psychological impact on the militants’ followers. According to various analysts, Mehsud`s death could spell disaster for "unity of command" that had existed under his leadership. The factions which have come under the umbrella of the TTP could fall apart again in the race to succeed Mehsud. Will there be any change in Pakistan and the US’ counter-terrorism strategy in the region post Baitullah? “No change. The US would pursue its policy with greater vigour,” says Jain. Asked as to who could possibly take over the reins of TTP after Mehsud’s demise, Jain noted, “If Pakistan’s intelligence succeeds then they will impose their own proxies. ISI-friendly person may take over. Hakimullah Mehsud close to al Qaeda and rumoured to be dead has now issued statements that he is alive. He is a likely candidate.”