Pankaj Sharma/Zee Research Group
If statistics hold the mirror to future, it might actually not be a dream political debut for bureaucrat-turned-politician Arvind Kejriwal.
Kejriwal’s, who is the chief of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), decision to fight against Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit in forthcoming Assembly polls in Delhi might turn out to be mistake as in past decade only an incumbent chief minister has lost his or her seat in an Assembly poll just thrice.
Interestingly, in Delhi’s case, the trend is 100 per cent in favour of the serving CMs. But that is history. Kejriwal can turn the table if he gets to be the exception rather than the rule.
A Zee Research Group (ZRG) study of past 46 Assembly elections held during the last one decade in India reveals that it doesn’t matter whichever party wins the incumbent CM’s has surely got re-elected.
Interestingly, the study also shows all three incumbent CM candidates who lost during the last decade, were done in by competition represented by experienced politicians.
Uttarakhand’s Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri, West Bengal’s Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and Mizoram’s Pu Zoramthanga are the only three candidates who lost their seats as serving CMs’ of their respective states. The defeat margin in case of Zoramthanga and Khanduri, though, was marginal. While Zoramthanga lost out by 1256 votes, Khanduri lost by 4623 votes.
Another trend available is of Chief Ministers’- Nitish Kumar in Bihar and Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh- using the Vidhan Parishad route to get elected.
Moreover, barring the case of Donkupar Roy, former CM of Meghalaya, the winning margin in case of CMs’ surveyed, has been higher than 3000 votes. Roy won 2008 Assembly election by 939 votes.
Former CM of Maharashtra, Ashok Chavan won by a maximum margin of 1,07,503 votes in 2009 assembly elections. Gujarat’s CM Narendra Modi is on second and third place in highest margin rankings during the decade. Difference of votes between Modi and the runner-up in 2007 and 2012 elections was 87161 and 86373 respectively. Haryana CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik followed with 72100 and 61273 votes respectively in 2009 elections.
The performance of Delhi CM hasn’t been bad either. Sheila Dikshit has been in the office now for more than 14 years in a row. In all winning CMs in the past 10 years, she is on the 28th spot in winning margin. In 2008 Delhi Assembly elections, she defeated her opponent by 13982 votes. In 2003, the voter difference between Dikshit and runner-up was 12935.
In fact, Delhi has been a happy hunting ground for all chief ministers in elections. Interestingly in 1998 when BJP had to face rout in Delhi Assembly poll, Sushma Swaraj was able to easily defeat her opponent. Assembly elections in Delhi are slated to take place in November this year.
One more thing that goes against Kejriwal’s candidature against Dikshit is the performance of professional candidates in elections. For instance in 2009, Meera Sanyal then head of ABN Amro and Dr Mona Shah both had to lose their deposits.