PM Modi's Mongolia visit – what it holds for India

Though China is most likely to remain at the centre of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's three-nation tour, which he began on May 14 by visiting the Communist State first, his visits to Mongolia and South Korea hold great political significance too.

After concluding his tour of China, PM Modi will reach Mongolia on May 17 on the second leg of his three-nation tour of the Far-East Asia. Modi's Mongolia visit is significant since this will be the first ever visit of an Indian Prime Minister to the country, which also takes place in the backdrop its celebrations of the 25th year of democracy. PM Modi's arrival here will also open a new chapter in 60 years of India's diplomatic relations with Mongolia.

During his visit, the Government of Mongolia is set to bestow a rare honour on Modi – allowing a foreign leader for the first time to address the country's Parliament when it is on a vacation.

During his stay, the PM will meet Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, PM Chimed Saikhanbileg among others and explore ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation in diverse areas. The two sides will also ink several key agreements including one on application of nuclear technology for cancer cure, solar and wind energy, traditional systems of medicine and homeopathy, cyber security and other areas.

Despite being constrained by geography and sandwiched between two super powers - China and Russia - Mongolia has always had good diplomatic ties with India and views it as a "spiritual neighbour". Possibly that's the reason why Mongolia has elaborate plans to accord a grand welcome to PM Modi and turn his brief sojourn into a memorable one.

While China remains the top focus of the Indian government in its aim to boost trade and economic ties with the “Dragon”, this culturally rich land-locked East Asian country assumes an important place in New Delhi's East Asia strategy.

While India will use “Buddhism and its status as a vibrant democracy” as its two main tools to connect with Mongolia, the latter too will try to woo its “spiritual neighbour” by hosting a special workshop on 'Art of Living', which is hugely popular in this east-Asian nation and many cultural festivities during Modi's stay.

Modi is scheduled to begin his Mongolia visit from the famous 19th century Gandantegchinlen Monastery where he will plant a sapling from the 'Mahabodhi' tree. The Mongolians, on their part, will hold a special session of their national festival - the Naadam Games – a rarest of rare visual treats. The festival, featuring equestrian sports, wrestling and archery, is traditionally held in July and is on the UNESCO list of intangible heritage.

60 years of India-Mongolia ties

The relationship between India and the modern-day Mongolia was formalised by an Indo-Mongol Communique, which was issued on December 24, 1955. In the process, India became the first country outside the Soviet Bloc to establish contacts with Mongolia, which was then called the Mongolian People’s Republic. It was in 1970 that India established its embassy in Ulan Bator. Sonam Norbu, a monk-turned-diplomat from Ladakh, was chosen as India's first residential ambassador to Mongolia.

The first high-profile visit by a leader from either side was undertaken by India’s former president S Radhakrishnan (then vice-president) in 1957. This was reciprocated in 1959 by the visit of Yumjaagin Tsedenbal, the then prime minister of the Mongolian People’s Republic. Since then, two Indian presidents - R Venkataraman (in 1988) and Pratibha Patil (in 2011) - have visited the country.

Former prime minister Indira Gandhi, during her stint as Information and Broadcasting (I&B) Minister in the Lal Bahadur Shastri cabinet, visited Mongolia in 1965. Mongolia reciprocated by sending high-profile visitors to India which included three presidents - Punsalmaagiin Ochirbat in 1994, Natsagiin Bagabandi in 2001 and Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj in 2009.

New Delhi has played an important role in getting Mongolia membership to key international forums, including the United Nations (UN), despite strong opposition from China and Taiwan. Mongolia was finally admitted to the UN in 1961. In a reciprocal gesture, Mongolia co-sponsored a 1972 UN resolution with India and Bhutan for the recognition of the newly liberated Bangladesh.

India-Mongolia bilateral cooperation

The bilateral ties between India and Mongolia have grown considerably since 1973, when the two nations inked an 8-point joint declaration, which formed the basis for cooperation between the two sides. The two sides further signed the Treaty of Friendly Relations and Cooperation in 1994 during President Ochirbat’s visit to India, followed by joint declarations in 2001, 2004 and 2009.

Primarily, India-Mongolia relations have been largely centred around increased bilateral cooperation in sectors like defence and security, trade and civilian nuclear energy. Mongolia, which is considered to be one of the world’s most mineral-rich countries, has large coal, petroleum and uranium reserves.

Defence & Security

In the defence sector, which has been a key focus area of cooperation between the two states, India has played a significant role in modernising the Mongolian weaponry. During President Pratibha Patil's visit to the country in 2011, both sides signed a defence cooperation agreement, which included the conduct of joint defence exercises code-named Nomadic Elephant.

India is also an active participant in an annual week-long joint training exercise called the Khaan Quest, hosted by Mongolia. Both countries also share technical partnerships, which include civilian training programmes, establishment of training centres in areas like energy and information and technology.

The bilateral trade between India and Mongolia has seen a remarkable growth in the past few years, with Indian exports contributing to the bulk of the numbers. As per government statistics, the bilateral trade stood at USD 17.4 million in 2010 and rose to USD 46.7 million the following year.

In 2012, the bilateral trade rose to USD 60.2 million. However, trade fell to USD 35 million in 2013.

Deal on uranium supply

Mongolia was among the first few nations - France, Russia, Namibia, Argentina, UK, Canada, Kazakhstan, South Korea and the United States - to sign a deal for supplying uranium to India after a go-ahead by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in 2008. Unfortunately despite the deal, India has still not received any uranium supplies from Mongolia. Consequently India had no option but to look at other nations for regular supply of uranium for running its nuclear reactors. Hence, a fresh deal with Mongolia on uranium supply will be high on PM Modi's agenda when he meets with his Mongolian interlocutors for trade talks.

However, many experts think that supply of uranium from this east-Asian nation to India will not materialise soon post PM Modi’s visit to Mongolia. PM Modi’s visit, at its best, can further expedite Mongolia's internal process of obtaining uranium from its mines and actually shipping the first consignment to India.

A political masterstroke by Modi

Narendra Modi's decision to undertake an official visit to Mongolia is being viewed as a political masterstroke by the Indian PM. Since Mongolia has never been on the “must-visit nations” list of any Indian Prime Minister from Jawahar Lal Nehru onwards, Modi wants to change this perception by increasing bilateral engagements with Ulan Bator.

In all probability, PM Modi’s trip to Mongolia is likely to bring the two Asian parliamentary democracies closer. Despite being dwarfed by two powerful nations – China and Russia – there is a growing demand in Mongolia to open up to the world. Because of Mongolia's geographical proximity to China with which it shares borders, Beijing exerts a huge influence on its economy and the national polity.

Since its formation as a modern state, the basis of Mongolia's foreign policy has predominantly been its diplomatic ties with the erstwhile Soviet Union and China. During the Sino-Soviet split, from the 1960s to the late 1980s, Mongolia relied more on Moscow than Beijing and emerged as the Soviet Union’s most reliable ally in Asia.

Its political leadership and the Mongolians, in general, viewed China with a profound, deep-rooted mistrust, fanned by Beijing's colonial legacy in Mongolia and the long history of Sino-Mongolian conflict.

However, bilateral ties between the two sides strengthened through the 1980s; and today, China is Mongolia’s largest trading partner. Mongolia, today, is keen to extend the “third neighbour policy” — a term first coined by US Secretary of State James Baker during his visit to Ulan Bator in 1990 and which initially meant the United States and the West — to India.

The reason behind Mongolia's inclination towards India lies in its deep-rooted cultural links with India, Buddhism being its main source. In order to break free from China's clutches, Mongolia wants to look beyond Beijing and Moscow by expanding its ties with India and other like-minded nations.

The coming closer of Mongolia and India will be mutually beneficial for the two, both politically and strategically. Mongolia, being a major producer of copper, iron, coal and uranium, can be a potential supplier of mineral resources to India.

For these obvious reasons, China has always kept its eyes on the Mongolian markets. However, increasing domination of China's Communist leadership and its policy of territorial aggrandisement has triggered concern in Mongolia.

A large section of Mongolian politicians believe that an unreasonably high dependence on China will do more harm than good for Ulan Bator. China, which is Mongolia’s largest trading partner since 1999, accounts for over 70 percent of total Mongolian exports. Over 60 percent of Mongolia’s foreign investment comes from China alone.

Despite gaining independence from China in 1921, a vast number of Chinese still refer to Mongolia as ‘Outer Mongolia’. On the other hand, Taiwan still claims Mongolia as part of its official territory.

Because of these factors, the anti-China sentiment is very high in Mongolia and its state media often views Beijing with cynicism.

So in many ways, Mongolia offers a potential strategic tool for India in establishing a power balance in the region vis-a-vis its relations with China. Undoubtedly, a lot will depend on how PM Modi, who is expected to announce a big assistance package to Mongolia as part of India's strategy to reach out to all of China's neighbours, succeeds in conveying his good will and assuring that New Delhi will remain a long-term partner to Ulan Bator.