H K Dua
When domestic politics becomes intense, there is a risk of vital issues concerning foreign policy getting neglected. A vibrant democracy like India’s will always have some internal stomach aches which can draw greater attention than the situation in the world outside.
A nation like India, poised to emerge as a major economic, political and military power of the 21st century, cannot afford to sit back and shut its eyes to what is happening around in the world.
During the last two years issues and controversies at home dominated the public mindspace. The general mood of cynicism that spread across the nation during the last two years, as well as the bitter acrimony that underscored the public discourse, distracted the country and the political leadership across the country from the tasks abroad.
After the ongoing Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are over, the country will get busy with preparations for the next parliamentary elections due in 2014. Already, much of the public debate about the Assembly elections is viewed in the context of what impact their results will have on the 2014 parliamentary polls.
The world, which is always changing, is not, however, going to wait for India’s next Lok Sabha election to be over. Even in the next two years the situation in major parts of the world will have changed, demanding India’s continued attention, irrespective of what happens during the run-up to the 2014 polls.
Major nations of the world are going to see a few important changes. The present leadership in China led by Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao will have given way to new leadership in China by the end of this year. Vladmir Putin will return to presidency at the Kremlin to make it more powerful and govern Russia for at least six years.
In the United States it will be known by the end of the year whether President Barack Obama gets a second term, or will a Republican capture the White House. It remains to be seen whether President Obama – if he gets re-elected – will give greater attention to Washington’s global policies than he has given during his first term. At the end of his first term he is in withdrawal mode.
Nearer home the situation in Pakistan is in a state of flux and no one knows what is the shape of things likely to come in Islamabad, caught as it is in a triangular war between the civilian government, the army and the judiciary.
The situation in West Asia will perhaps become a major concern for New Delhi, considering that over 60 lakh Indians work in West Asia and a chunk of our oil supplies come from the Persian Gulf. So do the trades routes with the western hemisphere.
Already, the US has decided to toughen the sanctions regime against Iran – mainly because it is refusing to give up its nuclear bomb programme. Iran has even threatened to block the Straits of Hormuz in retaliation and in case it carries out its threat, it can lead to a flare-up in one of the most dangerous spots in the world.
Iranians are unlikely to succumb to the sanctions. Their economy depends on oil exports. They could divert most of their oil exports to China, which like Russia, is opposed to Western sanctions against Iran.
No one knows what the Israelis will do in this kind of situation. They have a running rivalry with Iran in West Asia’s complicated politics where oil, religion, geopolitics and big power interests have brought about dangerous uncertainties. Also, Israel and the US, hate to see Iran going ahead with its plans to develop nuclear weapons.
Assembly elections or a run-up to parliamentary polls in 2014 notwithstanding, India cannot simply watch with indifference the situation in the area so close to it.
Also when major powers like the US, Russia and China will be busy with their elections or changes at the leadership level, India can take initiatives unhindered to improve relations in its immediate neighbourhood. The big powers are too busy with their own pursuits at this time.
At present, the relations with South Asian neighbours are better than before. Even if the Teesta accord fell only because of Mamta Bannerjee choosing to scuttle it, the relations between India and Bangladesh have vastly improved after Sheikh Hasina’s return to power in Dhaka.
Of particular significance is the recent improvement of relations with Myanmar. During the last three months three high-level visits to India by leaders of Myanmar – of the President, the Speaker and the Foreign Minister – have taken place. These were not courtesy calls from a neighbouring country which has decided to go in for a reconciliation process at home initiating democratic reforms and released Aung San Suu Kyi, but also decided to open out to the rest of the world, certainly to India. For India, having opted for East Look policy, Myanmar can become a bridge with South East Asia.
The relations with Nepal, which is of critical importance, have improved lately with the Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai coming to power in Kathmandu. He will like to keep a balance when dealing with China in the north and India along its southern border, but is likely to keep Indian interests in mind.
Of crucial importance will be the relationship with China and Pakistan and the thickening ties between the two countries.
The peace dialogue with Pakistan was going on smoothly, until the Islamabad got caught in political uncertainty following the “Memogate” It can be resumed once it is clear who is to govern Pakistan.
Despite “irritants” --- as Wen Jabao would call these -- make scary headlines, the India-China relations have been fairly on course, judging from the way the Special Representatives of the two countries tried to work out a framework for delineation of boundary demarcation in a slow process of the resolution of the border dispute.
Whatever the gloomy forecasts, a war between India and China is ruled out. Both countries have developed their military strength as also trade relations, although the trade balance with India is heavily tilted in favour of China.
There is no solution in sight about military and nuclear ties between China and Pakistan. Indian concern about this has been brought to the notice of the Chinese, but the only remedy for India is to grow its own military strength. At the same time the policy should be to continue the dialogue with both -- and these should go without interruption, until the cows come home. Hysterical noises and headlines do not make a constructive contribution to diplomacy.
India needs a vision for the 21st century and time to build its economy and military strength. The country also needs a consensus among major political parties on vital issues concerning foreign policy, security and terrorism. Such a consensus can be evolved despite the polemics that are going to mark the political landscape until 2014 parliamentary elections.
(The writer is a senior journalist and a Member of Parliament.)