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Nomura revises India`s GDP forecast to 7%

Last Updated: Monday, November 30, 2009 - 21:15

Mumbai: In view of India`s pleasantly
surprising GDP growth for the second quarter, Nomura Financial
Advisory & Securities (India) today revised the country`s
FY`10 GDP growth forecast at 7 percent from 6 percent

"We are revising our GDP growth forecast for FY`10 to
7 percent from 6 percent, taking into account recent upside
surprises in agriculture and industrial output and emerging
signs of a recovery in the services sector," Nomura said.

India`s GDP grew by 7.9 percent, as compared to 6.1
percent in the immediate past quarter, on higher Government
spending, a large contribution from net trade and a pick-up in
private consumption and investment.

Describing the "lower agriculture output" as the
"immediate challenge", Nomura said it could be a drag on GDP
in the next quarter and on rural consumption.

"But we expect urban consumption to rebound due to
better job prospects," it said.

Nomura, however, believes that the strong data could
pave the way for the Reserve Bank to exit from the "very easy
policy settings".

"We expect the policy rate hiking cycle to begin in
January with a cash reserve ratio hike likely this December,"
it said.

Bureau Report

First Published: Monday, November 30, 2009 - 21:15
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