New York, Jan 18: India can expect more terror
attacks like the Mumbai carnage from Pakistan-based terrorist
groups with high body counts and symbolic targets in an
escalating terror campaign in South Asia, a study by a leading
US think tank has warned.
"India will continue to face a serious jihadist threat
from Pakistan-based terrorist groups, and neither Indian nor
US policy is likely to reduce that threat in the near
future," said Angel Rabasa, lead author of the study and a
senior political scientist with RAND Corporation, a nonprofit
research organization.
"Other extremist groups in Pakistan likely will
find inspiration in the Mumbai attacks, and we can expect more
attacks with high body counts and symbolic targets.”
The Mumbai terrorist attacks suggest the possibility
of a rise of a strategic terrorist culture, the study said.
The RAND study identifies the operational and tactical
features of the attack, evaluates the response of Indian
security forces, and analyzes the implications for India,
Pakistan and the United States.
Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba has been blamed for the
26/11 strikes.
The report acknowledged that both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, making any military action a "dangerous
course", but warned that if India does not respond, that
"would signal a lackof Indian resolve or capability."
The selection of multiple targets —- Americans, Britons
and Jews, as well as Indians — suggests that the terrorists
intended the attack to serve multiple objectives that extended
beyond the terrorists' previous focus on Kashmir and India.
Mumbai is India's commercial and entertainment center,
and the attacks on landmark properties amplified the
psychological impact, according to the report.
"The defining characteristic of the Mumbai attack, and
what makes it so alarming, is not just the ruthless killing,
but the meticulous planning and preparation that went into the
operation,” said Brian Michael Jenkins, a leading terrorism
expert and senior advisor at RAND.
Other authors of the study are former US Ambassador to
India Robert Blackwill, now a senior fellow at RAND; Peter
Chalk, Kim Cragin, C. Christine Fair, Seth Jones, Nathaniel
Shestak, all of RAND, and Ashley Tellis, a senior associate at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"The goal was not only to slaughter as many people as
possible, but to target specific groups of people and
facilities with political, cultural and emotional value. This
indicates a level of strategic thought — a strategic culture —
that poses a difficult challenge: not whether we can outgun
the terrorists, but can we outthink them?".
One of the main lessons of Mumbai is that it exposed
numerous weaknesses in India's counter-terrorism and threat
mitigation structure, according to the report.
Bureau Report
First Published: Sunday, January 18, 2009, 00:00