New Delhi: India`s seasonal monsoon will
be `below normal` in August and September and could affect
farm output in parts of the country, weather scientists said.
"Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole
during the period August to September is likely to be 90 per
cent of Long Period Average (LPA)," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today in its outlook for the second half
of the monsoon session.
The annual rain season began on a good note with June
receiving 111 per cent falls, followed by a slump in July
which witnessed 86 per cent rains.
While the weather office sees 46 per cent probability
of below normal (86-94 per cent of LPA) rainfall in the next
two months, the probability of deficient rains (less than 85
per cent of LPA) is 27 per cent.
The country has received 95 per cent rainfall of the
LPA in June-July.
Weather scientists said that the model error of eight
per cent for August-September forecast would mean that some
areas may get 98 per cent rain while it may be 82 per cent in
There are chances of farm productivity being affected
in regions getting less rainfall, they said.
Earlier this year, the IMD had issued regional monsoon
forecasts -- three per cent below normal in northwest India,
five per cent below normal in central India and six per cent
below normal in the southern peninsular region.
However, the IMD said, the seasonal rainfall over
northeast India is likely to be less than 87 per cent of the
long period average.