New Delhi: The stage is set for the onset of
the four-month south-west monsoon season with favourable
conditions developing in the Andaman seas for triggering
weather systems that bring rains to the country.
"Conditions are favourable for onset of south-west
monsoon over south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining
southeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours," a weather
advisory issued this morning said.
Last week, the weather office had said that the
much-awaited seasonal rains are expected to bring showers to
the Andaman Sea by May 20. The onset of monsoon over the
Andaman Sea sets the stage for the four-month summer rain
season that powers the trillion-dollar economy with
agriculture as its prime engine of growth.
Following its onset over the Andamans, the rain-bearing
system is expected to progress further over the next 10 days
and make landfall over Kerala on May 30, two days before its
normal onset date in the coastal state.
Last month, the IMD had forecast normal monsoon rains for
the season beginning June one.
The normal monsoon forecast is expected to bring cheers
to over 235 million farmers who had faced drought last year
due to failed monsoon.
A good monsoon could help in sowing of rice, sugarcane,
soybean and corn and lead to a rebound in the agricultural
A favourable parameter for a normal monsoon was the end
of the El Nino event for the year.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology had announced the
conclusion of the El Nino event of 2009-10 saying that all the
major indicators were now below El Nino thresholds.
The periodic warming of the equatorial to equatorial east
Pacific is known to affect adversely the monsoon rains in
India. The unusual warming of the Pacific water was one of the
factors believed to have affected the monsoon season last
Weather scientists now expect the La Nina conditions to
develop which are known to be favourable to the Indian
La Nina represents the exact reverse of El Nino, when the
warming anomaly spreads westwards in the Pacific and has been
largely known to favour an Indian monsoon.
Historically, about 40 per cent of El Nino events are
immediately followed by a La Nina, the Australian Bureau of