Bonn: The world is careering towards
three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming by
2100 despite headline-making promises to curb carbon
emissions, a study released at UN talks here said today.
"The current pledges and loopholes give us a
virtual certainty of exceeding 1.5 C, with global warming very
likely exceeding 2 C and a more than 50-per cent chance of
exceeding 3 C by 2100," said Bill Hare of Germany`s Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
Around 120 countries have signed up to voluntary
action on greenhouse gases under last December`s Copenhagen
Accord, which aims to limit warming since pre-industrial times
to 2.0 C.
Scientists caution there is no consensus on what is
a safe level for warming, and some say a rise of even 2.0 C
could still have far-reaching risks for ice and snow cover and
The new study takes a fresh look at the promises,
pronouncements, policy changes and other measures unveiled,
sometimes with fanfare, since Copenhagen.
It rated the contribution by China -- the world`s
No 1 carbon polluter -- as "inadequate" but praised the
country for boosting renewable energy.
A voracious burner of fossil fuels, China saw its
carbon emissions double from four to eight billion tonnes
annually from 1990 to 2005.
On a business-as-usual basis, its output would
reach between 12 and 14 billion tonnes by 2020, according to
the new Climate Action Tracker analysis.
But, if all China`s policies are implemented,
emissions could remain under 10 billion tonnes per year, it
Among industrialised countries, the report warned
the United States, the No 2 polluter, would still fall short
even if it fulfilled its Copenhagen promises.
Only Norway and Japan are currently in the
tracker`s "sufficient" category among industrialised
countries. However, the European Union (EU) and Iceland could
join them by deepening planned emissions cuts from 20 per cent
by 2020 over 1990 levels to 30 per cent.
The analysis was written by experts with PIK, a
German energy research company called Ecofys and Climate
Analytics, a not-for-profit company which tracks policy
commitments in climate change.
It was published on the penultimate day of a 12-day
round of talks in Bonn under the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC), which seeks to shepherd 194 countries
towards a post-2012 worldwide treaty.