Mumbai: India's total agriculture crop production is expected to drop by 4.7 per cent and foodgrain output by 5.6 per cent in 2009-10 following a deficient monsoon, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has said.
The poor rainfall in June and its skewed distribution
even after a revival in July will bring down the yield of
crops sown during the kharif season, the city-based think-tank
has said in its monthly review.
Since acreage is not likely to rise significantly, this
implies a fall in kharif crop production.
A projected fall of 10 per cent will bring down rice
production to 89.6 million tonnes from an all-time high output
of 99 million tonnes in 2008-09. Coarse cereals production is
expected to drop by 8.8 per cent, it said.
However, pulses production is expected to rise due to
higher production of tur and rabi gram, CMIE said.
In 2009-10, non-foodgrain production is projected to
decline by 3.5 per cent. Cotton production is likely to reach
22 million bales. This implies a fall of five per cent in
addition to the 10.5 per cent decline in 2008-09.
Sugarcane production is likely to fall by 6.7 per cent
to 253 million tonnes in 2009-10 after a steep fall of 22 per
cent recorded in 2008-09, CMIE said.
As prospects for agriculture crop production do not
appear to be encouraging, the huge procurement of paddy and
wheat will provide some buffer against the expected shortfall,
the CMIE said.
During 2009-10 rabi marketing season, the government
procured 25.3 million tonnes of wheat against 22.7 million
tonnes in the previous year. Paddy procurement also rose 20
per cent to 32.2 million tonnes during October-July 2009-10.
Concerns over an unsatisfactory monsoon leading to a
poor kharif crop prompted the government to resume its ban on
wheat exports in July, reversing its earlier decision that it
would allow shipments by state firms.
The CMIE expects pulses production to increase by 6.8 per
cent during 2009-10.
By the end-July 2009, 73.6 lakh hectares were sown under
pulses, which was 10 per cent more than the area sown by
end-July 2008.
Acreage under arhar has shot up by 24.5 per cent to 27.3
lakh hectares by July 2009. Consistently good rainfall in
Karnataka and a revival in July in Maharashtra is likely to
attract farmers to grow more of this crop, it said.
CMIE expects production to increase 2.7 million tonnes
in 2009-10 from 2.3 million in 2008-09.
Besides arhar, production of other kharif pulses like
urad and moong is likely to improve on higher acreage.
Bureau Report
First Published: Monday, August 10, 2009, 23:20