Congress strong; BJP, AIUDF key players in Assam

Assam is one of the few states where the Congress party looks strong and hopes to do well in the coming Lok Sabha polls.

Ritesh K Srivastava

While the prospects of the corruption-tainted Congress appears dim in most of states, Assam is one of the few states where the party looks strong and hopes to do well in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

Though a pro-government mood prevails in the state, the battle for the 14 Lok Sabha constituencies in Assam has turned interesting, given the popular mood in favour of Narendra Modi. However, Badruddin Ajmal`s All India United Democratic Front (AUDF), which wields considerable clout in the Muslim-dominated districts, will also be a key player to watch.

Another powerful political party – the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) - which once dictated the direction of Assam politics, is in a state of disarray after several of its top leaders deserted the party to join the BJP.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had emerged as the single largest party winning seven seats while its ally the Bodoland Peoples` Party had retained Kokrajhar. The BJP had finished second with 4 seats while the AGP and the AIUDF had won one seat each. The AGP`s fortune has been going down ever since it was relegated to third place in the 2011 Assembly poll, mostly on account of the fast rise of the AIUDF.

Former student leader Sarbananda Sonowal was the first prominent leader to desert the AGP to join BJP, he was rewarded by his new party by making him the state unit president. Sonowal was soon followed by the party`s founder-members and former powerful state ministers Chandramohan Patowary and Hiten Goswami.

The defectors alleged that they were forced to leave the party as the rank and file had lost confidence in their founder-president and former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, who is not willing to quit as party chief.

Though AGP came second on four seats in the last polls, this time the going appears to be tough for the regional party with the BJP going all out to consolidate its position in the state with its national leaders paying particular attention to the state.

Former AGP leaders, who had switched sides for the BJP, claim that people in Assam are fed up with the anti-people policies of the Tarun Gogoi`s government and want to give the BJP a chance at the Centre. Riding on the Modi wave, the state BJP leaders are confident that the party will get more than the four seats it had won in the last LS polls. According to insiders, AGP chief Prafulla Kumar Mahanta is fast losing his grip over the party and many more leaders and their followers were waiting in the wings to leave the party at an opportune moment.

There will be no smooth ride for Congress, which is still strong in the state, in the 2014 polls as infighting and internal squabble has badly plagued the state unit and a section of its ministers and legislators are extremely disappointed with Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi`s style of functioning.

A section of the Congress is also opposed to Gogoi`s promotion of family members. His son, Gaurav Gogoi was nominated from Kaliabor constituency, replacing his brother and sitting MP Dip Gogoi.
Tarun Gogoi denies that pro-Modi sentiments are running high in Assam and it will work in favour of the BJP . The Chief Minister claims that the ruling Congress will win at least 10 seats (out of 14) in the 16th Lok Sabha polls scheduled for 7, 12 and 24 April in Assam. He has also been very critical of the BJP`s PM candidate Narendra Modi terming him only ‘an expert in packaging and marketing of politics’ sans any essence.

Another cause of worry for the Congress is the likely division of votes of its traditional minority vote bank following the rise of the AIUDF in minority-dominated constituencies of Dhubri, Karimganj and Silchar.

The AIUDF, the largest opposition party in the state Assembly, is an ally of the UPA at the Centre, but it is opposed to the Congress in the state politics. While the Congress will contest 13 seats leaving one for its ally Bodoland Peoples` Party, the BJP will contest in 12 seats, ensuring a tough fight with all stake holders – AGP, AIUDF etc.

The fate of two Union ministers - Paban Singh Ghatowar, renominated from Dibrugarh, and Ranee Narah from Lakhimpur - will be decided in the first phase with the former attempting to retain the seat for the sixth term and the latter for the fourth term.

Narah, whose candidature was also opposed by a section of the Congress, will find the going tough against BJP`s state unit President Sarbananda Sonowal, while Ghatowar is expected to sail through comfortably.
Going by the findings of the poll surveys, Congress is likely to increase increase its vote share from 35 percent in 2009 elections to 47 percent. The BJP is also expected to increase its share from 16 percent in 2009 to 19 now while AGP`s vote share is likely to see a big drop from 15 to 9 percent. The AIUDF, though a key player in minority-dominated areas, is also expected to witness a slight erosion in its support base. The party`s vote share is also likely to go to 10 percent of votes from 16 in last elections.

Notably, there is no AAP impact in Assam despite its meteoric rise in the national politics after its victory in Delhi Assembly polls this year.

It would be interesting to watch whether voters in Assam will give a thumps up to Tarun Gogoi`s serious efforts for sustained peace, progress and development in the region and help Congress win the crucial Lok Sabha polls with flying colours.

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