Elections 2014: Who will sweep Delhi – Modi or `Jhadu`?

Deepak Nagpal

The national poll bugle has been sounded and among the states/UTs that will be watched closely over the next two months include the city-state of Delhi. Delhi had always been a two-way contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. However, the emergence of Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party has changed the scenario if the December 2013 Assembly Election was any indication. The Congress, which had been in government for the last 15 years, was literally uprooted from the corridors of power. The AAP went on to form the government with outside support from the Congress but the shaky government could survive only 49 days, with Chief Minister Kejriwal putting in his papers over the issue of the Delhi Jan Lokpal Bill. Many supported Kejriwal`s decision, but most criticised him for `running away from responsibility and fulfilling his election promises`. Experts are divided on whether Kejriwal and his AAP`s popularity has soared or dwindled in the wake of his 49-day stint at the helm of affairs in Delhi. While he `sort of` fulfilled his commitment on power tariff reduction, free water supply and CAG audit of power discoms, he was slammed for the manner in which he tried to keep his promises. Some of the theaterics of Kejriwal and his ministers seem to have caused disenchantment among the middle-class voters. Experts say most of the educated middle class in the capital is likely to vote for stability at the Centre rather than vote for a party which ran away from running the government in the city. Local power tariffs, water supply, schools, cleanliness etc won`t play a role in the voters` decision-making; national issues like political stability, price rise, economic growth, corruption-free administration etc will determine the swing of votes. However, the poor strata or the real `aam aadmi` is expected to come out in large numbers and vote for the AAP in Delhi. Most of the `drama` enacted by the AAP is meant to serve that strata of the society, say observers. There are seven Lok Sabha seats in the capital and in the 2009 polls, the Congress had made a clean sweep. But, if opinion polls are to be taken into account, AAP is likely to bag most of the seven parliamentary seats this time around, followed by the BJP. Congress, surveys claim, may at the max bag one seat. For the Congress, it will be another embarrassment coming on the back of the Assembly Election results. The popular opinion coupled with the `misdeeds` of the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre will hurt the party badly in the Lok Sabha polls as well. The BJP, meanwhile, will be playing the wait-and-watch game. It is banking on its performance in the Assembly polls – having emerged as the single-largest party in Delhi – and the Modi wave across the country to put up a good show. Some opinion polls have predicted that the BJP will share with the AAP most of the Delhi Lok Sabha seats. In terms of candidates, Congress as part of its experiment conducted primaries on two seats – Northeast Delhi and New Delhi. While Ajay Maken cleared the primary contest from New Delhi unopposed, sitting MP JP Agarwal won the primary comfortably in Northeast Delhi constituency. Both have been renominated from their respective constituencies. The party has also renominated other sitting MPs Kapil Sibal from Chandni Chowk, Krishna Tirath from Northwest Delhi and Sandeep Dikshit, son of former chief minister Sheila Dikshit, from East Delhi. The Aam Aadmi Party, meanwhile, has chosen not to field any prominent party leader, including former Delhi CM Kejriwal, from the city. It has instead chosen journalists, social activists and a retired colonel as the candidates. The names include Ashish Khetan, Ashutosh and Jarnail Singh. The BJP, meanwhile, has nominated its Delhi CM candidate Harsh Vardhan from the Chandni Chowk constituency against Congress` Kapil Sibal. To cash in on the celebrity factor, the BJP has nominated Bhojpuri movie star Manoj Tiwari from Northeast Delhi, while Mahesh Giri will fight from East Delhi and party spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi from New Delhi. The reserved Northwest Delhi seat has been allotted to Dalit leader Udit Raj. The party has also given ticket to former Delhi CM Sahib Singh Verma`s son and MLA Parvesh Verma from West Delhi. All said and done, it remains to be seen whether the Modi wave will blow the Congress and the AAP away or the Jhadu will sweep Delhi off its feet.