Manisha Singh
It is said that BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi was very keen to bring Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party back to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold. It is also said that he pushed for it with full force. And the LJP did come back to the NDA, years after it had left the alliance in a huff after the 2002 Gujarat riots, accusing the BJP of being a party of ‘cow worshipers’, who called the Dalits to bury the animals when it died. Needless to say, it was huge embarrassment for the then prime minister of India, Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
Ironically, the same Paswan has come back to the NDA at a time when it was being debated that though the BJP cadre was enthused over the anointment of Gujarat Chief Minister as the party’s PM candidate, could he win over allies. After all, Modi has been accused of being a polarizing figure by his political rivals and to make matters worse, one of the oldest allies of the BJP, the JD(U) ended a 17-year-old alliance with it over the rise of Narendra Modi.
When Nitish Kumar left the NDA in June last year saying that he could not accept Modi as the PM candidate, some within the BJP were also said to be reportedly worried about driving away allies or potential allies. For example, a one time ally of the BJP, Mamata Banerjee, with an eye on the Muslim electorate in West Bengal has repeatedly said that she would have nothing to do with the saffron party.
However, for the BJP, there was no other option other than to name Modi as their PM candidate, despite opposition from some senior leaders within the party. The cadre and the RSS were said to stoutly behind the Gujarat CM and he was clearly their most popular leader. And since Modi has been named the PM candidate, the enthusiasm in the party workers has been unprecedented, along with the massive crowds that he has been drawing at his rallies.
It is precisely for this reason that LJP’s coming back to NDA fold after its talks failed with the RJD and the Congress is a big boost both for Modi and the BJP. Paswan shared the stage with Modi at his rally in Bihar’s Muzaffarpur on March 3, with the BJP projecting its new alliance with the LJP and Koeri community leader Upendra Kushawaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) with much aplomb, sending out a message to the so-called secular parties and the people in general that they were not ‘untouchable’.
In an era of coalition politics where it is increasingly becoming difficult for the national parties to get majority on their own, Modi knows that to breach the 272 mark the BJP will need new alliances and support of regional parties. This can be reflected in his speeches too where Modi has steered clear of playing the ‘Hindutava’ card and has incessantly talked of development and growth and has relentlessly targeted the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre on issues of policy paralysis, non-governance and corruption, projecting himself as the only alternative in front of the nation.
The BJP would be hoping that the promise to get India rid of Congress coupled with the commitment to work for the development of the country will help it in attracting new allies, as well as getting old ones back in its fold. The BJP would especially be hoping to rope in those parties who are clearly anti-Congress.
The BJP under Atal Bihari Vajpayee had led a 16-party NDA to electoral triumph in the 1999 General Elections. Vajpayee was at the peak of his popularity and the NDA had managed to cross the 300-seat mark in the Lok Sabha polls for the first time (NDA - 269 and Telugu Desam Party – 29, which gave outside support to the BJP-led government). Vajpayee successfully ran a stable government from 1999 to 2004 after two earlier setbacks. This incidentally was the first time when a non-Congress party had been able to run a stable coalition government at the Centre for five years.
This is something that Modi would be hoping to replicate if he can lead his party to victory on May 16. It is said that Modi’s so called ‘wave’ in the country particularly in North India is probably more than the popularity Vajpayee enjoyed. It is also said that in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar Modi’s personal charisma may help the party in getting more seats than in 1999. But the fact is that when compared to 1999, Modi definitely leads a much weaker NDA. Parties like the Bjiu Janata Dal, DMK, Trinamool Congress and of course the Janata Dal (United) have since then deserted the NDA. It’s another matter that some of them since then have joined and left the UPA too.
Thus, in 1999 wherein states like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa helped the BJP come back to power, this is something that is missing in 2014. Traditional partners like the Shiv Sena and Akali Dal are part of the NDA but the BJP needs more partners to come back to power at the Centre. And the reason for this is simple. The personal appeal of Modi and the image of being a decisive leader may help the party to do well in North India but it may not do as well in Eastern and Southern part of India, except maybe Karnataka.
However, the party got a major fillip in Tamil Nadu when on March 20 the BJP announced the formation of a seven-party rainbow alliance in the state, its first-ever such electoral venture on the turf that largely belongs to DMK and AIADMK. BJP chief Rajnath Singh told the press that out of the 39 seats, actor-politician Vijayakant`s DMDK will fight in 14 seats while PMK and BJP will field candidates in eight constituencies each.
On the other hand, Modi too got a personal boost when Telgu actor and brother of southern actor and union minister K Chiranjeevi, Pawan Kalyan, who recently floated the Jana Sena party, backed the Gujarat CM to be the next PM of India.
His sentiments were shared by another Telgu actor Nagarjuna, who met Modi on March 25 and said that he was `very inspired` by him and expressed confidence that he would be the country`s future PM.
Coupled with these developments, Chandrababu Naidu`s TDP too seems to be warming up to the BJP. If a tie-up happens here, the picture for the upcoming polls in Andhra may change in the days ahead, even though YSR Congress headed by Jagan Reddy is tipped to do well in the state.
Also, people like Subramanian Swamy merged his Janata Party with the BJP last year and smaller parties like the KMK and the IJK too have joined the BJP and regional outfits like the Haryana Janhit Congress, Swabhimani Paksha, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha and AINRC are in their kitty but the real challenge is to get one of bigger regional parties who may win around 20 to 30 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in its fold.
The BJP after winning 180 seats in 1999 has not been able to match the figure in both 2004 and 2009. However, this time around with massive anti-incumbency against the Congress-led UPA government and huge disappointment with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s style of functioning, the BJP is hoping to improve its tally of 1999. Even if it does, the NDA may still be short of 40 to 50 odd seats in breaching the magic figure of 272 where it will be in a position to form the next government.
Where will those extra seats come from must surely be on the mind of top BJP leadership including Modi. However, success has a strange way of attracting friends and who knows if the BJP-led NDA does well at the hustings then it may be able to lure new and old allies and persuade them to become a part of the National Democratic Alliance.
