Lok Sabha polls: Is Congress-led UPA a ‘sinking ship’?

A kaleidoscope of disasters are staring the UPA government in the face - Accusations of scams and corruption, policy paralysis and price rise and ten years of anti-incumbency coupled with the perception of a Prime Minister (Manmohan Singh) who failed to relate to the people, have all stacked up heavily against the beleaguered Congress-led government.

Manisha Singh

When the Congress lost the Delhi Assembly elections in December 2013 in which the new party on the block, the Aam Aadmi Party, took everyone by surprise by winning 28 seats, Rahul Gandhi had said that his party would take steps to revitalsie the party in the way never seen before.

More than three months down the line, the changes if any are not visible, atleast to the outsiders. Infact, with talks of senior leaders unwilling to fight the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, reports have been doing the rounds that the rank and file of the grand old party are demoralised inspite of Congress vice president addressing rallies after rallies and taking on its main rival, the BJP and its PM candidate, Narendra Modi.

There are reasons for it.

A kaleidoscope of disasters are staring the UPA government in the face - Accusations of scams and corruption, policy paralysis and price rise and ten years of anti-incumbency coupled with the perception of a Prime Minister (Manmohan Singh) who failed to relate to the people, have all stacked up heavily against the beleaguered Congress-led government.

Adding to the woes is a weakened UPA, with partners deserting the alliance at regular intervals so much so that the Congress has been running a minority government at the Centre for some time now with outside support of two Ms from Uttar Pradesh – Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party (with 22 MPs) and Mayawati of the BSP (with 21 Mps).

UPA won the 2009 General Elections with the Congress bagging 206 seats. This was 61 more than the 2004 election tally. The pre-poll alliance of the UPA of which Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD, Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP were not a part, won 262 seats, and just needed the support of 10 MPs to get a simple majority in the Lok Sabha.

However, as UPA-2 progressed so did its alliance problems and by the end of the term it was all a question of survival for the Congress.

The chain of desertions started in UPA-1 (2004-2009) when the Left, who were backing the government with 59 seats, opted out over the Nuclear Deal in July 2008, which Manmohan Singh pushed for with all force and which was passed after the SP came to its rescue. The SP has helped the UPA to remain afloat since then. It’s another matter that along the way Mulayam has constantly taken on the Congress and criticised it vehemently at regular intervals, asking his cadres to vote the party out. He has also backed the idea of a ‘Third Front’ with the hope that by a stroke of luck 2014 may see him fulfilling his long-term ambition of becoming the prime minister of India.

The desertions continued in UPA-2 too. If the West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee (with 19 MPs) left the alliance in 2012 on the issue of FDI, the DMK (with 18 MPs) called it quits in 2013 on the issue of atrocities committed by the Sri Lankan government on Tamils and the unwillingness of the Congress in passing a resolution against the neighbouring country for ‘genocide’ and ‘war crimes’. There others too like the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha and the AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi who quit the UPA.

Needless to say it does not augur well for an alliance going into the poll mode to be left in the wilderness by its partners and running a government, one may say precariously, by outside support of two parties who have their own axe to grind. Yes, there are the loyalist like the NCP who have stuck with the Congress, but in an era of coalition politics this may not be enough. And the NCP too has taken pot-shots at the Congress time and again. Its chief Sharad Pawar not too long ago said that Rahul Gandhi still needed to learn a lot and gave the impression that he was unwilling to accept the Congress VP as his boss.

Which brings up the pertinent question – Does Rahul Gandhi have the charisma and the leadership qualities to attract new allies. Even though the UPA has shrunk in the last ten years, his mother and Congress president Sonia Gandhi was said to have a personal rapport with alliance partners. In an era of coalition politics and rising regional aspirations the national parties have no choice but to live with the hard truth that they cannot get majority on their own.

Rahul too in all probability knows, even though he talks of strengthening the party at grassroots level and would prefer to contest the polls alone if possible, that gone are the days of his grandmother Indira Gandhi and his father Rajiv Gandhi when the Congress was a pan India party and did not need support of regional parties to keep itself afloat. Probably this was the reason, Rahul, inspite of reported hesitations, tied up with RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar for upcoming Lok Sabha polls even though the latter has been convicted in the Fodder scam and is out on bail.

Rahul did experiment going alone in Bihar in 2009. The result was a disaster for both the parties; RJD won four seats out of 40 Parliamentary seats in Bihar, whereas the Congress managed a mere two seats. However, with Rahul being accused of being a reluctant politician and seen as someone who only mouths platitudes but is unable to clearly spell his vision for India, many are questioning his ability to attract allies.

The return of Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP to the NDA fold must have come as a setback to the Congress. Pawasn may not be a major force in the state but in politics at times it’s the perception that assumes great significance. Paswan had walked out of the NDA when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the PM over the 2002 Gujarat riots. Now, his coming back to the NDA does in a way defeat the call of the Congress to all ‘secular’ parties to come together to fight the ‘communal’ forces.

The Opposition, especially, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have repeatedly called the UPA a weakened force and a ‘sinking ship’. Given the above scenario, it seems they have a point. In the run up to the polls, the Congress has really not announced any new allies. On the other hand, the BJP while managing to attract the likes of LJP and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, has seen former allies of the Congress like DMK’s Karunanidhi praise BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi.
This should send warning bells ringing in the Congress’ top rung. After all in politics there are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies. Who knows if the BJP-led NDA manages to reach within striking distance of 272 on the D-day, many smaller parties who consider Modi as ‘untouchable’ as of now may be willing to do business with him. Not to miss is the fact that a lot parties like NC, TMC, BSP, DMK, AIADMK have been part of both the coalitions and have done business with both the BJP and the Congress. Thus, one can safely predict that 2014 General Elections will see a lot of political churnings till the new government is formed and till the country gets a new prime minister.
As for the UPA the writing seems to be on the wall, with most poll predictions and experts saying that the alliance is on its way out and the Congress may just end up in double digits – its worst ever preformance in Lok Sabha polls. If this were to happen, then surely the Congress leadership and the Gandhi family need to introspect as to what went wrong and how they let the people of this country down.

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