Lok Sabha polls: Is it going to be UDF or LDF in Kerala?

With just twenty Lok Sabha seats, Kerala has eight ministers in the present Union cabinet. Of the eight two are Cabinet ranked, while other six are Ministers of State. This probably explains the importance of the southern state in UPA`s calculations which has traditionally seen a direct contest between the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPI(M) backed Left Democratic Front.

Manisha Singh

With just twenty Lok Sabha seats, Kerala has eight ministers in the present Union cabinet. Of the eight two are Cabinet ranked, while other six are Ministers of State. This probably explains the importance of the southern state in UPA`s calculations which has traditionally seen a direct contest between the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPI(M) backed Left Democratic Front.

In the 2009 General Elections the UDF swept the polls bagging 16 seats, the LDF won the rest. However, ahead of the polls on April 10 the UDF, despite being in power in the state, is finding the going tough. And it is not just owing to the corruption taint on the UPA government, serious allegations of graft have also been levelled against the Oommen Chandy government, primarily the infamous and the multi-million rupee Solar Project scam. The Congress was embarrassed no end when three of Chief Minister’s personal staff were linked to main accused Saritha Nair, who along with her live-in partner, allegedly cheated many investors after promising to supply them solar panels. In fact experts say that this particular scam has led to a massive dip in UDF’s image and it may not be able to recover in time to repeat the good showing of 2009.

Another problem that the ruling UDF is facing is the Kasturirangan report which has declared parts of the Western Ghats as sensitive and recommended restricted farming there. The revelations of the report have rocked the hilly districts of Idukki and Wayanad since November last year and the state government has come under heavy attack. It was said that more than 100 villages would be affected if the report was to be implemented. Chandy was forced to raise the issue with the PM, leading the environment ministry to take a re-look at it and the report was finally cleared recently with revision. However, the CPI(M) has dismissed it as just an eyewash and is taking on the Congress over the issue.

In order to reap political advantage from the matter, the CPI(M) has said that it will support a candidate put up by the High Range Protection Samithi (HRPS) to contest the Idukki Lok Sabha seat. This council was at the forefront of the protests against the Kasturirangan report since it was made public.

On the other hand, the Opposition LDF is fighting its own demons. It was being said that in view of the beating that Chandy’s government had taken, the LDF should have been in a position to sweep the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. However, the prosecution of three CPI(M) office bearers along with seven others in the murder of party rebel and heavyweight leader TP Chandrasekharan in Kozhikode district in 2012 has sullied the image of the combine at the wrong time and given Congress the much needed ammunition that they were waiting for.

Moreover, the CPI(M) was hugely embarrassed when its top leader VS Achuthanandan went public with his support for demands of Chandrasekharan’s widow for a CBI probe in his murder. It is said that because of the mass support that Achuthanandan enjoys in the state, the party let him off without any action.

Another development which may affect the poll outcome on May 16 in Kerala is the fact that the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), floated by Chandrasekharan after he had broken away from the CPI(M) has announced that it will in contest in at least five seats in the state.

Meanwhile, in a departure of sorts from the kind of politics that it is associated with, the LDF is backing six independent candidates from the minority community for the Lok Sabha polls. Out of the six, four are Christians and the fifth is a Muslim. One of them a Christian doctor, Bennet Abraham, is contesting against Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram.

The other four CPI(M)-backed Christian candidates are contesting in central Kerala. As per reports, the Left has turned to turned to Joyce George, a leader of the church-backed HRPS to fill the Christian vaccum in Idukki. George has been leading an agitation against the recommendations of the Kasturirangan panel.

Ernakulam and Chalakkudy are the other two seats where the LDF is supporting the Catholics, with former IAS officer Christy Fernandez and actor Innocent standing for the polls. In Pathanamthitta constituency, the Left is backing Philipose Thomas. Here too there are vast expanse of land in villages notified by the Kasturirangan panel report.

To be noted is the fact that in the last Lok Sabha polls, the CPI(M) had faced a backlash from the Hindu community when it had sponsored an independent in Ponnani, who had been nominated by terror case accused Abdul Nazer Madani.

Needless to say the Left are desperate for a win and want make a comeback in the Southern state. After being toppled by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in West Bengal in 2012 Assembly polls after 32 years, Tripura is their only stronghold left as of now, where they won the Assembly polls in 2013.

Thus, Kerala seems to be headed for a fight to the finish especially with Chandy declaring that the upcoming Lok Sabha polls is going to be a referendum on his government. An interesting seat to watch out for in Kerala will be Thiruvananthapuram, where the Union Minister Shashi Tharoor, the sitting MP, will face former union minister and BJP leader O Rajagopal. The constituency has a large number of educated government employees and Tharoor is said to be popular amongst the youth.

Meanwhile, the BJP will be hoping to open its account in the southern state. But given the fact that the party has almost negligible presence in Kerala, (BJP has never won a Lok Sabha or an Assembly seat in the state) they may not be able to register a win even though the ‘Modi wave` has also not left the state untouched.
BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi did hold a well-attended rally in Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram in February where he lashed out at the both the Left and Congress, urging the crowds to look for an alternative to the two. However, as things stand, most likely it will be contest between the LDF and the UDF once again in Kerala and it may take a while for the southern state to make a departure from bi-polar politics that has been its hallmark for years now.

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