Lok Sabha polls: JD(U) on downslide; BJP to emerge winner in Bihar?

Manisha Singh

Along with Uttar Pradesh, the so called ‘Modi wave’ is said to be sweeping the state of Bihar too. It is important for the BJP that Bihar votes in its favour if its prime ministerial candidate for 2014 General Elections, Narendra Modi, is to realise his dream of occupying the top post of the country and lead his party back to power at the Centre after a decade. Bihar has 40 parliamentary seats. It is a state where caste and religion play an important part in determining the voting patterns. Key castes in Bihar are the Kurmis, Yadavs, Muslims, Scheduled Castes and the upper castes, comprising mainly of Rajputs, Brahmins and Bhumiyars. In the way politics is played out in this part of the country, all political parties have wooed one or the other caste combination in the past, both in Assembly and Lok Sabha polls. In the era before RJD and Lalu Prasad Yadav arrived on the scene, it was the Congress that ruled for years mainly with the backing of the upper castes and the Muslims. All that changed with the arrival of Lalu, who stormed the scene in 1990 and ruled for 15 years primarily milking the famous M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) combination. The RJD domination was dealt a brutal blow by the JD(U)-BJP alliance in 2005 which saw Nitish Kumar donning the cap of the Chief Minister. Though he had come to the power promising good governance and better law and order situation, which had taken more than a beating during Lalu’s time, Nitish’s social engineering also reaped major dividends for him at the cost of rival parties like the RJD and the LJP. He divided the Scheduled Castes of Bihar into Dalits and Mahadalits. Ram Vilas Paswan’s caste was categorized as Dalit and the rest of SC population was termed as Mahadalit. However, Nitish by and large kept his poll promises and he took Bihar on the path of development, with a visibly better law and order situation, so much so that the BJP-JD(U) combine came back to power in the Assembly polls in 2010 with a bigger mandate. And the mandate was mainly seen as a referendum for the man of the moment then – Nitish Kumar. But between 2010 and 2014 much water has flown under the bridge. JD(U) snapped its 17-year-old ties with the BJP last year over the issue of growing clout of Modi. Nitish was vehemently opposed to the anointment of Modi as NDA’s PM candidate and when the Gujarat CM was named as BJP’s poll panel chief in Goa in June 2013, it was time to bid goodbye for the Bihar CM. It is said that two factors were instrumental in Nitish making the move – around thirteen percent of Muslim population in the state and his own ambitions of becoming the PM. But as they say, politics is a great leveller. In his second innings as the CM and especially after breaking his partnership with the BJP, Nitish has been accused of two things amongst others – going soft on his resolve towards zero tolerance towards corruption and playing it safe with terror related cases in order to appease the minority vote bank. He also earned the wrath of the upper caste for snapping ties with the BJP. Adding to his woes is the fact that a host of JD(U) leaders have deserted the party and joined BJP, RJD and Congress ahead of the polls. Some of the prominent party leaders and MPs who have left the JD(U) are Jai Narayan Nishad, Puranmasi Ram, Shivanand Tiwari and NK Singh. Also, Nitish recently expelled Shabir Ali, chief of Delhi unit of JD(U) for praising Modi. So much so that, according to experts, the upcoming Lok Sabha polls will be a reality check for Nitish Kumar and he is predicted to lose heavily. Modi realises this and no wonder he has been giving extra attention to the state which has faced the ignominy of being a dubbed as a BIMARU state. Modi’s ‘Hunkar’ rally in October last year in which lakhs turned up even when bombs went off in the rally ground, was probably the turning point, wherein the BJP realised that the momentum was in their favour. Since then BJP leaders from the state have been saying that Bihar will throw up a surprise in 2014 and will be instrumental in a regime change at the Centre. The party is banking on the Modi factor for an upsurge in the state and hoping to gain from the polarisation of upper caste votes, along with a certain amount of the backward caste to increase its vote share from 14 percent that it got in 2009. (The JD(U) had got 24 percent of the vote share in last Lok Sabha polls. Nitish had won 20 Lok Sabha seats in 2009 and the BJP 12. The NDA had won 32 seats in total) In all his rallies in Bihar, Modi has reminded the voters of his humble background and the fact that he belongs to the backward caste. He has also not left any opportunity to tear into Nitish for being an ‘opportunist’. Bihar has approximately 66 percent OBC population, with 54 percent said to be Hindus and around 12 percent Muslim. Also, with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP back in the NDA fold, the BJP has tried to send out a message to the electorate, specially, the minorities that it is not ‘untouchable’ and anti-Muslim. Pawasn had left the NDA when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the PM just after the 2002 Gujarat riots. Incidentally, the LJP had failed to win a single seat in 2009. On the other hand, Nitish seems to be isolated at the moment. There were speculations of JD(U) tying up with the Congress but that fizzled out after the grand old party joined hands with the RJD and NCP in Bihar. Meanwhile, Lalu would be hoping that there is a crystallisation of RJD votes and a resurgence in his popularity, ironically, after his conviction in the Fodder Scam. His plan to stage a comeback is also resting on his beleif that his core support base, Yadav and Muslim votes, would come back to him to ensure that he is able to give a tough fight to the BJP and the JD(U). As for the Congress, it has been on a losing ground in Bihar in recent times and is considered a fringe player in the state. It won a mere two seats in the 2009 General Elections when it fought the polls alone. The RJD had won four seats. After going solo in 2009, both RJD and the Congress seem to have learnt the lessons the hard way and are now hoping that their alliance would help them to repeat the results of 2004 when along with the LJP they had won 32 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar.