Zee Media Bureau
New Delhi: With General Elections scheduled to be held in this month and May, campaigning is going on in full swing with all the major political parties criss-crossing the country and addressing the people in order to maximise their votes.
To assess the mood of the electorate, Zee News commissioned a pre-poll survey (phase 2) through TALEEM Research Foundation, the objectives of which were to assess as to which party would form the government on May 16, what would the voting pattern of the electorate be, which party would get how much vote share, and so on.
According to the survey, 35.7 percent voters said that they would vote in favour of the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), while 19.9 percent voters said that they would vote for the Congress. BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) came third (3.5 percent) and Aam Admi Party (AAP) fourth with 2.9 percent. Voters also indicated their preference for regional parties like TMC (Trinamool Congress) 2.1 percent and SP (Samajwadi Party) 2.1 percent to mention a few.
BJP`s PM candidate Narendra Modi was chosen by 45.7 percent voters as best prime minister as compared to Rahul Gandhi (21.3 percent). Arvind Kejriwal came third (4.0 percent) and Mayawati fourth (3.7 percent voters).
The BJP was projected to get anywhere between 215 to 225, whereas the Congress was projected to get 121 to 132 seats.
Price rise (65.4 percent) followed by corruption (46.5 percent) and unemployment (45.0 percent) emerged as the three main issues in the forthcoming elections. Other issues included economic development (40.2 percent) and road, electricity and water (40.0 percent). Communalism (6.9 percent), surprisingly found to be less important issue as compared to insecurity (12.2 percent).
About 36.3 percent voters thought BJP could solve major socio-economic problems whereas 19.5 percent voters thought Congress party could do so followed by third front/regional parties (12.2 percent).
Nearly 61.4 percent voters felt that dynastic politics promoted by some parties was not in national interest, whereas 49.5 percent voters felt that internal conflict in BJP would hurt the party.
The idea of contesting elections from two constituencies by a candidate was considered inappropriate by 62.6 percent voters. However, very small percentage (14.1 percent) voters endorsed this idea, though 23.2 percent expressed no view.
About 72.6 percent voters were against the use of indecent, discourteous and impolite language by their political opponents.
Within 95 percent confidence level or +/- 5 percent margin of error, vote share and seat projection have been made. The projections have been made having minimum and maximum number of seats to be won by various parties, if elections were to be held today.
In phase 2, similar to phase 1, a survey methodology was followed to capture the mood and changes, if any, that has taken place since phase 1 survey in the voters’ opinion. Phase 2 survey covered 66 Lok Sabha constituencies in General castes, Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) categories spread across 23 major states including Delhi and Goa.
In each Lok Sabha constituency, two legislative assemblies were randomly selected. Within each Legislative Assembly, four polling booths were randomly selected. Thirty voters were randomly selected from each polling booth using a fixed sampling interval for interview. In this way, from 132 legislative assembly constituencies, a total of voters 15840 voters were to be interviewed. The actual voters interviewed were 15377 in opinion poll survey - Phase 2. Phase 2 survey was carried out during March 24-April 1, 2014.
In phase 2, like phase 1, both male (53.5 percent) and female (46.5 percent) voters belonged to major religious groups (81.9 percent Hindu, 11.3 percent Muslim, 3.5 percent Christian and 2.3 percent Sikh). Caste categories of voters included (36.9 percent general castes, 18.7 percent Scheduled Castes, 9.9 percent Scheduled Tribes, 30.2 percent Other Backward Classes and 4.3 percent Others). Voters had varying educational achievements and occupations and lived largely in rural areas (71.5 percent) compared to urban areas (28.5 percent).