Ritesh K Srivastava
Samajwadi Party (SP) founder Mulayam Singh Yadav is a seasoned political player, whose voice matters in the power corridors of Delhi and he is someone who has the potential to make or break the fortunes of any political formation post May 16.
A heavyweight from the electorally crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, which holds the key to the formation of government at the Centre, Mulayam is known as a fighter with the knack of making comebacks and the ability to stitch coalitions to serve his political ambitions.
After establishing himself as a towering figure in state politics, Mulayam Singh Yadav has become a symbol of the growing clout of regional parties in national politics. In the event of the BJP-led NDA or the Congress-led UPA failing to reach the magic figure after the Lok Sabha polls, Mulayam will be one of these six powerful regional satraps - Mamata Bannerjee, Jayalalithaa, Naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar, Mayawati - who will hold the keys to 7 Race Course Road.
Known for his shrewd political skills, Neta Ji, as he is popularly known, has in past succeeded in forging a unique social coalition that included Muslims and sections of backward castes, especially Yadavs, to seize power in UP. Influenced by socialist ideologies of Ram Manohar Lohia, this former school teacher and wrestler has for long harbored the ambition to become the prime minister of India.
Having realized that the UPA is a sinking ship, especially after the DMK’s exit, and the BJP being untouchable due to SP’s traditional Muslim vote bank, the socialist leader has renewed efforts to push a non-Congress, non-BJP-led alliance at the Centre ahead of the 2014 General Election.
To fulfill Neta Ji’s dream of becoming the PM, his party is aiming to win at least 45-50 Lok Sabha seats to emerge as the third biggest party, while also acting as the prime pushers of a Third Front – a coalition of eleven non-BJP and non-Congress parties.
With its 22 MPs, Mulayam’s party has been extending unconditional outside support to the Congress-led UPA since 2004 but with the political arithmetic changing fast, the party now believes that it can play the kingmaker and Neta ji, possibly, the king in the post-poll scenario.
As expected, Yadav’s renewed push for the Third Front has made Congress wary and the grand old party has been quick to dismiss the concept as a “permanent mirage”.
Undeterred by the regular barbs from the Congress camp, the SP patron is keeping all options open at the moment. In a sudden change of heart, the SP chief had recently praised LK Advani and even criticized his son and UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav for weak governance.
Mulayam’s apparent softening of stance on Advani has provided enough fodder to Congress to question his secular credentials, and target him by saying that Muslims can no longer be fooled by the party as it has entered a secret deal with the BJP to polarize the voters in the aftermath of the communal riots in Muzaffarnagar.
Possibly that is the reason why Narendra Modi and Mulayam have attacked each other in their respective rallies in UP. A closer look at the SP patron’s actions will suggest that by praising Advani, mocking the Congress or calling on the regional parties, Neta Ji is only sending a message that he is not short of options.
While a majority of SP leaders are not in favour of burning bridges with either the UPA or the NDA, due to the fluid political situation, at the same time, they also don’t want to be seen as aligning with either of the two parties.
Yadav had first floated the idea of a Third Front in July 2012 and ever since he had made his intentions to become prime minister clear. During recent party meets and rallies , Mulayam had urged the party cadres to ensure that the SP emerges as a formidable player in the 2014 polls by winning at least 45-50 of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP.
Winning a sizeable number of seats in the Lok Sabha polls will unarguably add weight to Mulayam’s political clout and increase his party’s bargaining power among the prime ministerial hopefuls.
But the bigger question is whether Mulayam would be able to prop up a Third Front? A slow response from the Left parties can spoil Mulayam’s plan to see himself as the PM of India. An indication in this regard came recently when the Left leaders stated that a Third Front can only be contemplated after the 2014 polls.
However, in his desperation to realise his dream of becoming the PM, Mulayam also faces the risk of getting exposed as an ‘opportunist’. He has already faced criticism for putting everything at stake - his commitment to secular values, the minorities and socialism - in a bid to keep everyone in good spirit.
But there are few who believe that Mulayam is right in positioning himself as a key player because if SP becomes the largest constituent of the Third Front coalition after polls, he will be in a position to extract maximum advantage.
Notwithstanding the grand allegiance, fissures have already emerged in the proposed Third Front as Mulayam wants a bigger say and other constituents are non-committal on the PM candidate since there are several aspirants for the top post. To his advantage, Mulayam’s party currently rules UP but Akhilesh government’s sub-standard performance and its stance on the Durga Shakti Nagpal issue, Muzaffarnagar riots, Safai Mahotsav and rising graph of crime has already come as a big embarrassment for the party, and not to forget the challenge posed by arch-rival Mayawati, who appears capable of upsetting the poll arithmetic here.
