New Delhi: India Meteorological Department has stuck to its forecast of "deficient" monsoon as it came out with its prediction for the second half of the season which is likely to witness weak rainfall over the next two months.
IMD said rainfall in August is likely to be 90 percent, which is on the negative side of "below normal" rainfall. It has added that El-Nino phenomenon has strengthened from weak to moderate from April to July and it will continue to remain so in the remaining time of the season.
"Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season (August to September) is likely to be 84 percent of LPA (long period average) with a model error of plus or minus 8 percent. Rainfall during August is likely to be 90 plus or minus 9 percent of LPA as was forecast in June.
"The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 88 percent of LPA with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent as was forecast in June," IMD said.
Although the country has received weak rainfall, sowing overall has been good.
The first half of season gave a mixed amount of rainfall. June recorded 116 percent of rainfall of LPA (excess) while July recorded 83 percent, which was deficient.
Anything less than 90 percent of LPA is termed "deficient" rainfall while 90-96 percent of LPA is considered "below normal". Again, rainfall at 96-104 percent of LPA is "normal" with 104 to 110 percent taken to be above normal. Anything over that is "excess".
Last week, Skymet, country's private weather forecasting agency, revised its earlier prediction and lowered its monsoon forecast from 102 per cent to 98 percent even as it maintained that the country will receive "normal" rainfall during the year.
It has also revised its prediction for August and September.
"Cumulative rainfall for August and September forecast at 92 percent and 112 percent (error margin of plus/ minus 9 percent) of their monthly LPAs, respectively," Skymet said.