New Delhi: The much-awaited south-west monsoon on Monday brought first showers to the Andaman and Nicobar islands, setting the stage for its early progression towards
"South-west monsoon has set in over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and most parts of Andaman Sea," Ajit Tyagi, Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) told a news agency here.
He said a depression in the Bay of Bengal was expected to pull the monsoonal flow towards the mainland and it may reach Kerala earlier than May 30.
Last week, IMD had issued a forecast stating that monsoon could reach Kerala by May 30.
The onset of monsoon has now set the stage for the four-month rainfall season that has been eagerly awaited by the farm community who had to bear the brunt of a severe drought last year.
The weather office said conditions were favourable for further advance of monsoon over more parts of Bay of Bengal and remaining parts of Andaman Sea during next two days.
The IMD last month forecast a normal rainfall for this
year with a precipitation of 98 percent of the Long Period
Average, subject to a model error of plus or minus five per
cent for the entire season (from June to September).
Last year, the weather office had forecast a rainfall of
94 percent plus or minus five per cent in April and then fine
tuned it to 93 percent plus or minus four per cent. But, the
country received a rainfall of 78 percent of the LPA only for
The normal monsoon forecast is expected to bring cheers
to over 235 million farmers who had faced drought last year
due to failed monsoon.
A good monsoon could help in sowing of rice, sugarcane,
soyabean and corn and lead to a rebound in the agricultural
A favourable parameter for a normal monsoon was the end of
the El Nino event for the year.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) had announced the
conclusion of the El Nino event of 2009-10 saying that all the
major indicators were now below El Nino thresholds.
The periodic warming of the equatorial to equatorial east
Pacific is known to affect adversely the monsoon rains in
India. The unusual warming of the Pacific water was one of the
factors believed to have affected the monsoon last year.
Scientists now expect the La Nina conditions to develop
which are known to be favourable to the Indian monsoon.
La Nina represents the exact reverse of El Nino, when the
warming anomaly spreads westwards in the Pacific and has been
largely known to favour an Indian monsoon.
Historically, about 40 percent of El Nino events are
immediately followed by a La Nina, the ABM said.