New Delhi: There could be a "15-20 per cent" possibility of rains during the first fortnight of October when Delhi hosts the Commonwealth Games but country`s weather
office has no plans to prevent showers through cloud seeding or any other method.
Though it is not a forecast for this October but only an analysis of the climatological data for the past 110 years, the India Meteorological Department said that October is not
generally completely devoid of rain or thundershower activity.
IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi, however, said the weather office has no plans to prevent rains during the Games through cloud seeding or any other operations even if there are "sure signs" of impeding heavy showers.
During Beijing Olympics, China had used cloud seeding to prevent rains. Cloud seeding is an attempt to change the amount or type of precipitation by dispersing substances into
the air that serve as cloud condensation or ice nuclei, which alter the microphysical processes within the cloud.
The climatological data for 110 years show that there is a 15-20 per cent chance for rains during the first fortnight of October. "Though the average number of rainy days during October is only 2, average rainfall during the month is 25.9 mm with the larger share of it (22.4 mm) falling in the first half of the month when the Games are slated to be held.
"Though the incidence of rainfall is not very frequent during the month, there still exist 10-15 per cent chances that a day during first fortnight of October will receive rain," the climatological data said.
Quite significant rains have occurred over Delhi during October, the highest being 172.7 mm recorded on October 1, 1954, the data said noting that it also shows that rainfall of
20 to 40 mm was "not unco mmon" during the month. During the month, the average maximum temperatures fall from about 35 degree Celsius in the beginning of the month to about 31 degrees towards end of the month and the minimum temperatures fall from about 22 degrees to about 16 degrees.
It is not uncommon for maximum temperatures to exceed 35 degree Celsius, particularly during the first half, the data said.
Data of 40 years shows the probability of rainfall is slightly higher for the opening ceremony day -- with 4 out of 40 days reporting rainfall - than the closing ceremony day -- with 3 out of 40 days reporting rainfall.
Heavy rainfall of 68.3 mm was recorded on October 3, 2004, according to the data.