India may get excess rains; Sept to be wettest

The country is expected to get excess rainfall this monsoon with September tipped to be wettest.

New Delhi: The country is expected to get
excess rainfall this monsoon with September tipped to be the
wettest month, the Met office said on Friday.

The south-west monsoon, that powers the trillion-dollar
economy of the country, had entered a weak phase on June 18
after covering half of the nation but there are already signs
of revival in parts of Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand.
In an update to its April forecast, the India
Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its predictions and
pegged the quantum of rains for the country for June-September
period at 102 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

The LPA is the average rainfall received across the
country over a 50-year period. The LPA has been calculated at
89 cm. In April, the IMD had said the country would receive 98
per cent rains of the LPA.

"Monsoon revival is already taking place and we expect
good rains (98 per cent) in July and August (101 per cent),"
IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi told reporters here.

A good rainfall in July is very crucial for agriculture
as sowing for the kharif crop is at its peak during this
period. Over 235 million farmers across the country have been
expecting a normal monsoon season in the backdrop of severe
drought last year.

With the weather office sticking to its forecast of a
normal monsoon, sowing for kharif crops has been picking up
momentum across the country.

Agriculture Ministry said paddy has been sown in 24.12
lakh hectares (ha) as of today as compared to 10.97 lakh ha a
week ago. Oilseeds have been sown in 11.46 lakh ha.
The country`s rice output declined to 89.31 million
tonnes last year from the previous year`s record 99.18 million
tonnes due to a severe drought.

Monsoon had set in over Kerala on May 31, a day ahead of
schedule but had a sputtered advance due to various factors,
including the influence of cyclone Phet.

India had received 97.4 mm rainfall during the period
between June 1 and 23, 11 per cent less rains than normal.
However, weather scientists have said there is no need for
alarm as there is still hope for improvement in rainfall
across the country.

Tyagi said September could be the wettest month this
monsoon season as La Nina conditions are developing in the
Central Pacific ocean. The cooling of the Central Pacific,
called as La Nina, is believed to be one of the factors that
brings rains to the Indian subcontinent.

As per normal dates of onset, the monsoon is nearly 10-12
days behind schedule over the gangetic plains of north India.

The normal date on which the monsoon makes entry into
Uttar Pradesh is June 14. As on date monsoon has not entered
into UP and has advanced only upto western parts of Bihar.

Monsoon originates from southern hemisphere from a high
pressure area called "Mascarene High" situated near Mascarene
islands in South Indian Ocean.
Winds from this High flows towards Somalia coast and then
turn towards Indian peninsula to form a low-level jet in the
form of strong westerly to southwesterly winds, weather
scientists said.

It is this mechanism which decides the strength of
monsoon flow. Apparently, the out flow of winds from Mascarene
High got weakened from June 18 onwards which led to weakening
of flow over Arabian Sea and hence weakening of overall
monsoon activity.

The monsoon flow got revived from 24th June. The overall
monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is in good

The predictions suggest the flow would further intensify
from July 1 onwards.

An analysis of various forecast models suggest that
beginning from June 30, there may be fairly widespread
rainfall activity over Bihar, Jharkhand, East UP and parts of
North MP.

With this, it is expected that monsoon may cover
remaining areas of Bihar and Jharkhand, parts of MP and may
enter into certain areas of East UP during June 29 to July 1.


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