New Delhi: In what could bring cheer to the farmers as well as country’s policy makers in the country, the Indian Metrological Department, Tuesday, forecasted a normal monsoon season the second consecutive year, this year with the rain bearing clouds expected to hit the Kerala coast on June 1.
In a press release on the long range forecast for the 2011, the weathermen predicted that the south-west monsoon season (June to September) rainfall is most likely to be Normal (96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA)), adding that there is very low probability for season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA).
The monsoon is expected to move normally over the Indian subcontinent and will arrive at the national capital on June 29.
"Monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal. There is very low probability for the seasonal rains to be deficient," Earth Sciences Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal told reporters here.
Weather scientists, however, said that some pockets of the country, particularly the food bowl north western region could experience deficit rains.
Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
Importantly, IMD will update the above forecast in June as a part of the second stage forecast.
The country had witnessed a record foodgrain produce of over 235.88 million tonnes last year after a normal monsoon rainfall whereas in 2009, severe drought conditions had been witnessed.