New Delhi: South-west monsoon on Sunday made
a grand entry into Kerala, bringing cheer to the farming
community dependent on rains for a good crop.
"Southwest monsoon has set in over most parts of South
Arabian Sea, Kerala, some parts of Tamil Nadu, South Bay of
Bengal and south Andaman Sea," the weather office announced
The northern limit of monsoon passes through
Aminidivi, Kozhikode, Kodaikanal and Nancowrie.
"Conditions are favourable for the advance of
southwest monsoon over some more parts of the Arabian Sea,
remaining parts of Kerala, some more parts of Tamil Nadu,
south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and some parts of Karnataka
in the next 2-3 days," the India Meteorological Department
Earlier this month, the IMD had said that monsoon
would reach Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days.
The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala heralds the
beginning of rainy season in the Indian sub-continent.
The timing, spread and amount of rainfall, which has
been forecast at 98 per cent of the 50-year average in India
this year, are crucial for the farm-based economy.
The sowing of kharif crops like rice, pulses and
oilseeds starts with the arrival of the first rains.
The IMD has also forecast that rainfall during the
four month season was "most likely" to be normal this year, at
about 98 per cent of the Long Period Average, with a model
error of plus or minus five per cent.
However, the forecast is not final and IMD will update
it in June after taking into account parameters for which data
would be available only by then.
Among other conditions, several international models
monitoring El Nino-La Nina have indicated that sea surface
temperatures over equatorial Pacific were warming up.
Consequently La Nina conditions, which could have been
beneficial for monsoon, have weakened and have reached ENSO
As per recent forecasts by international models, for
the period from June-August season, there was a very good
chance for the neutral condition to continue -- a probability
of 57 per cent -- against a 22 per cent probability for the
re-emergence of La Nina conditions and a 22 per cent
probability for the development of El Nino conditions.
IMD officials emphasised that they would keep a close
watch on the phenomena to ensure that the country was well
prepared in case of any major changes.
Scientists would also closely monitor the developments
relating to Indian Ocean Dipole, which relates to anomalies in
the sea surface temperatures between eastern and western parts
of Indian Ocean.