New Delhi: Stalled in tracks due the cyclone
Phet, the crucial south-west monsoon is expected to regain
momentum next week and make rapid northward advances hitting
Mumbai by June 10.
Cyclone Phet had vented its fury in the Arabian Sea and
weakened the monsoon soonafter its onset over Kerala on May 31
where rains played truant under the influence of the tropical
The cyclone is expected to make landfall at Karachi on
June six and its after-effects are expected to bring rains to
regions as far as Delhi and parts of Western Uttar Pradesh
between June 6-8.
"Phet had weakened the monsoon flow in the Arabian Sea
but now with the weakening of the cyclone, monsoon is expected
to revive by June 9-10," Ajit Tyagi, Director General, India
Meteorological Department (IMD) told reporters here.
He dismissed suggestions of monsoon being further
affected by the cyclone and contended that conditions were
favourable for advance of the seasonal rains.
For the week ended on June 2, the monsoon rains were at
16.7 millimetres, 11 per cent less than the normal weekly
rainfall of 18.8 millimetres.
Asked about the deficit, Tyagi said that the season had
just begun and it would not be proper to talk in percentage
terms at this stage.
He said cyclone Phet had hit the Oman coast earlier in
the day and has now re-curved and begun moving towards Karachi
and adjoining Gujarat.
The subdued rainfall activity over peninsular India is
expected to last for another two to three days.
Tyagi said interpretation of numerical model outputs
indicate a possibility of revival in the monsoon flow from
June six onwards with strengthening of lower level westerlies.
The models also show development of a cyclonic
circulation over the Bay of Bengal around June eight and
subsequent formation of a low pressure system.
These conditions augur well for the advance of monsoon in
Orissa, West Bengal as also interior parts of the southern
About monsoon reaching Delhi, Tyagi said it was expected
to be around the normal onset dates of June 28 to July one.