New Delhi: With Lok Sabha polls due next year, a tracker poll conducted by a TV channel shows BJP-led NDA making significant gains even as the Congress-led UPA is projected to be hit by anti-incumbency factor.
The poll projections also reveal that no single pre-poll formation looks in a position to form the government and will have to work very hard to get the support of key allies.
It, however, says in this election the shots will be called by regional party leaders like Samajwadi Party`s Mulayam Singh Yadav, AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa, TMC leader Mamata Banerjee and BSP`s Mayawati.
These parties will be crucial to any government formation moves, it says.
According to the projections, NDA emerges as the biggest alliance with 156 seats. BJP is also the single largest party with 131 seats, Shiv Sena gets 15, Akali Dal 7, RPI (Athavle) 2, Nationalist Peoples Party 1.
The study gives UPA only 136 seats-- with Congress bagging 119 seats, NCP 6, RLD 3, JMM 3, IUML 2, National Conference 2 and Kerala Congress (M) 1.
"This is the lowest cumulative total seats that the two big national parties Congress and BJP have ever won," it says.
It appears that an alternative front backed by the outside support of either the Congress or the BJP stands a chance of forming the government, the tracker says.
A third or fourth front led by the SP or the AIADMK which could emerge as the single largest non-Congress, non-BJP party could get the magic mark with the support of one of the larger national parties, the study adds.
"To the key question, who should to be the Prime Minister of India, an overwhelming 37.7 percent of those surveyed opted for Narendra Modi. Rahul Gandhi came second with 17.6, Manmohan Singh got 6.2 per cent, Sonia Gandhi gets 3.9 per cent," it says.
The group conducted the study said that the projection was based on national cumulative tracking poll data of 36914 respondents during last 6 months by across all states of the country and a representative sample of 13052 randomly selected respondents during July 18 to 24.